ODM in Turmoil: Mumias East MP Peter Salasya’s public attacks on Raila Odinga, despite being part of the Azimio Coalition, have exposed deep rifts within the party. Salasya’s rising local popularity has emboldened his criticism, weakening ODM’s cohesion in Luhyaland, while attempts by leaders like COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli to address the dissent have fallen short
The ODM party, once a symbol of unity, particularly in Western Kenya under Raila Odinga’s leadership, is now grappling with internal challenges that threaten its survival in the region. Mr. Odinga, a long-standing figure in Kenyan politics, is facing a new political reality. His traditional dominance in Western Kenya, a region central to his political strength, is under strain as he shifts his focus to international ambitions.
As the campaigns for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) intensify, Raila’s reduced engagement in local politics has left a vacuum, exposing him to growing challenges from emerging rivals and discontent within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. His aspiration for the AUC chairmanship has taken precedence over local political engagement, particularly in the Luhya and Luo communities, which have historically supported him. This shift has weakened his grip on these strongholds, creating opportunities for opponents to sow seeds of revolt within ODM.
ODM, once a cohesive force under Raila’s direct leadership, now faces internal divisions and external competition. This lack of oversight has emboldened detractors within the region, many of whom are crafting new political narratives that challenge his hegemony.
Several figures have emerged to capitalize on the perceived leadership vacuum. George Natembeya, the Governor of Trans Nzoia, has garnered significant attention for his outspoken leadership style and political acumen. His growing influence within the Luhya community has positioned him as a formidable competitor to Mr. Odinga in the region.
Similarly, Senator Okiya Omtatah of Busia has signaled his readiness to shake up the political landscape. While regarded as a fringe candidate in the larger scheme of national politics, Omtatah’s potential presidential candidacy in 2027 could capture a substantial share of the Luhya vote, threatening Raila’s dominance in his Busia stronghold.
Wycliffe Oparanya, the former Kakamega Governor and ODM Deputy Leader, has transitioned into the national political arena as a cabinet secretary. However, his absence from local politics has created a leadership vacuum that Raila’s opponents have exploited. Meanwhile, Eugene Wamalwa, leader of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), has aligned himself with Kalonzo Musyoka, further destabilizing Raila’s influence in Western Kenya.
Caleb Amisi, the MP for Saboti and the party’s deputy organizing secretary, has openly contradicted Raila on multiple occasions, signaling growing insubordination within the party ranks. His actions, if unchecked, could further destabilize ODM from within.
Adding to the turmoil, Peter Salasya, the MP for Mumias East, has launched public attacks against Raila despite being part of the Azimio Coalition. Salasya’s growing popularity among local voters has emboldened him to criticize Raila openly, further weakening ODM’s cohesion. Efforts by influential figures like COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli to rein in dissenters like Salasya have so far proved ineffective.
The Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) has emerged as a significant player in Luhya politics, adding to Raila’s challenges. Led by Eugene Wamalwa, the party’s support for Kalonzo Musyoka’s 2027 presidential bid represents a major shift in the political dynamics of the region. Speculation about Wamalwa becoming Kalonzo’s running mate has further solidified DAP-K’s position as a rival to ODM in the Luhya nation.
DAP-K’s alignment with Kalonzo Musyoka threatens to splinter Raila’s support base, particularly as the party continues to gain traction in Western Kenya. This shifting allegiance underscores the need for Raila to recalibrate his political strategy if he hopes to maintain relevance in the region.
As Raila Odinga focuses on his AUC ambitions, his local political influence is increasingly at risk. With emerging rivals, internal dissent, and shifting alliances eroding his traditional support base, Raila faces one of the most significant challenges of his political career. We remain to see if he can navigate these complexities and reassert his dominance in Western Kenya. One thing is clear: the region’s political landscape is transforming, and Raila’s ability to adapt will determine his future role in Kenya’s political theater.
