The UN report The Global Threat of Drying Lands reveals that 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced increased dryness between 1990 and 2020. Released at COP16 in Riyadh, it highlights a 4.3 million km² expansion of drylands, now covering 40.6% of Earth’s land surface
As dramatic water-related disasters like floods and storms intensify in some regions, more than three-quarters of Earth’s landmass has become permanently drier in recent decades, according to a stark analysis by UN scientists.
The report, titled ‘The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections’, was released at the 16th Conference of Parties (COP16) to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the largest UN land conference to date.
The findings reveal that 77.6% of Earth’s land experienced increased dryness between 1990 and 2020 compared to the preceding 30 years. Over the same period, drylands expanded by 4.3 million km², an area nearly a third larger than India, now covering 40.6% of the Earth’s land surface (excluding Antarctica).
The report highlights a troubling transition, with 7.6% of the world’s lands, an area larger than Canada, crossing aridity thresholds, transforming from humid landscapes to drylands. This shift threatens agriculture, ecosystems, and the livelihoods of billions.
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw described the findings as a critical turning point: “This analysis finally dispels the uncertainty surrounding global drying trends. Unlike temporary droughts, aridity represents a permanent transformation, redefining life on Earth and posing an existential threat to billions worldwide.”
The report attributes this phenomenon primarily to human-induced climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production, transportation, industry, and deforestation have intensified warming, altering rainfall patterns, and increasing evaporation.
Future Projections: A Dire Warning
If greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked, an additional 3% of the world’s humid areas are expected to transition to drylands by 2100. Regions forecasted to face significant aridity include the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, southeastern Argentina, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and southern Australia.
The UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr emphasized the urgency of action: “Burning fossil fuels is not just driving global warming; it is permanently drying vast areas of our planet. This shift could push both people and nature to catastrophic tipping points. Adaptation is no longer optional, it is imperative.”
For the 2.3 billion people, over 25% of the global population, already living in drylands, the transition represents a profound challenge. By 2100, as many as 5 billion people could live in these arid regions, grappling with depleted soils, water scarcity, and ecosystem collapse.
Forced migration is becoming an increasingly visible consequence. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and communities are compelled to relocate, creating social and political challenges. In regions like the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, millions are already on the move, a trend expected to accelerate.
The report warns that by the end of the century, one-fifth of all land could undergo abrupt ecological transformations, with forests converting to grasslands and many species facing extinction.
A Call for Global Action
The report’s authors stress that addressing aridity requires coordinated international efforts, integrating cutting-edge science, Indigenous knowledge, and innovative technologies. Nichole Barger, Chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, underlined the importance of collective action:
“The question is not whether we have the tools to respond, it is whether we have the will to act. Without bold and coordinated efforts, billions face a future of hunger, displacement, and economic decline.”
Co-lead author Narcisa Pricope echoed the sentiment: “This report is a wake-up call. Tackling aridity demands a roadmap for resilience, one built on innovation, adaptive solutions, and a commitment to sustainable development.”
As the world confronts this escalating crisis, the report emphasizes the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, fostering global solidarity, and implementing adaptive solutions to safeguard ecosystems and communities. Without swift and decisive action, aridity will continue reshaping the global landscape, redefining humanity’s relationship with land and water.
