Kihika, who was a favoured candidate in the 2022 elections and garnered substantial support as a candidate for President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), seems to be losing ground. Several factors have contributed to this growing unease, most notably the political re-emergence of former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui having been nominated to a powerful cabinet position of Investments, Trade, and Industry. This move has complicated Kihika’s prospects for re-election in 2027, making an already competitive race even more intense
The political landscape in Kenya is shifting rapidly, catching many political figures off guard. Among those grappling with this changing environment is Nakuru Governor Susan Kihika, once seen as a rising star and a key ally of President William Ruto. However, the tide appears to be turning against her, as political dynamics shift, putting her influence in jeopardy.
Kihika, who was a favoured candidate in the 2022 elections and garnered substantial support as a candidate for President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), seems to be losing ground. Several factors have contributed to this growing unease, most notably the political re-emergence of former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui having been nominated to a powerful cabinet position of Investments, Trade, and Industry. This move has complicated Kihika’s prospects for re-election in 2027, making an already competitive race even more intense.
In the 2022 elections, Kihika secured 440,704 votes, significantly outperforming Kinyanjui, who ran on the Jubilee Party ticket under the Azimio Coalition and garnered 225,623 votes. However, Kinyanjui’s resurgence in the political arena bolstered by strategic outreach from Ruto to retired President Uhuru Kenyatta has placed him in a favourable position ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial race.
Political analysts suggest that Kinyanjui’s newly found backing from a broad spectrum of political figures, including Uhuru, Ruto, and even Raila Odinga, puts him in a strong position to challenge Kihika in 2027. The race is expected to be fiercely competitive, with Kinyanjui potentially gaining significant support from the Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo, and Kisii communities, all key voting blocs in Nakuru County.
Adding to Kihika’s challenges is her increasing isolation within the UDA. A deteriorating relationship with Ruto’s inner circle, particularly with the influential Farouk Kibet, has further weakened her political standing. Their fallout, marked by Kihika’s harsh comments toward Kibet, has pushed her further out of favour with key political players, making it harder for her to marshal the support she needs for a second term.
Further complicating matters, Kihika is facing mounting pressure from Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja, who has been vocal in her criticism of the governor, accusing her of corruption and poor service delivery. Initially, Karanja was seen as a potential challenger for the gubernatorial seat, but with Kinyanjui’s appointment and political resurgence, it now appears that he may be the preferred candidate for the 2027 race backed by both Ruto and Uhuru.
Kihika’s internal struggles also extend to her relationship with her deputy, David Kones, with whom she has had disagreements over unfulfilled pre-election commitments. This further exposes the fractures in her political camp, making her position increasingly vulnerable.
As Nakuru is a politically diverse county, with 70% of voters coming from the Mount Kenya region and significant populations from the Kalenjin, Luo, Luhya, Kisii, and Kamba communities, the 2027 election will hinge on coalition-building and strategic alliances. For Kihika to retain the seat, analysts suggest that she must select a running mate from the Kalenjin community, which holds considerable sway in the region.
Faced with mounting political pressure, Kihika finds herself in a precarious position, with her rivals gaining momentum and her own political base weakening. Ruto’s strategic appointment of Kinyanjui to the cabinet is seen by many as an effort to undercut Kihika’s influence ahead of the crucial 2027 gubernatorial election. As the political landscape in Nakuru continues to evolve, all eyes will be on the upcoming battle for the county’s top seat.
