Kenya’s import expenditure grew by 4.3% to Ksh 675.8 billion in the third quarter of 2024, compared to Ksh 647.7 billion in the same period of 2023. This increase was primarily driven by a surge in industrial machinery imports, which rose by 21.7% from Ksh 70.8 billion to Ksh 86.2 billion. The rise in import bills for machinery reflects a broader trend of increasing demand for capital goods in the country, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) Quarterly Balance of Payments and International Trade Report.
Notable increases in import expenditure during the quarter were observed in the following commodities:
– Plastics in both primary and non-primary forms (up 21.2%),
– Textile yarn, fabrics, and related products (up 29.0%),
– Chemical fertilizers (up 85.1%),
– Liquefied propane and butane (up 62.0%).
However, some sectors saw a decline in import costs. The import bills for animal and vegetable oils and petroleum products decreased by Ksh 25.0 billion compared to Q3 2023, contributing to an overall reduction in some key categories.
When classified by Broad Economic Category (BEC), non-food industrial supplies accounted for the largest share of import expenditure at 33.8% in Q3 2024. The import expenditure on transport equipment, machinery, other capital equipment, and non-food industrial supplies rose by 58.6%, 17.9%, and 7.2%, respectively. Conversely, import bills for food and beverage, fuel and lubricants declined from Ksh 94.1 billion and Ksh 158.9 billion in Q3 2023 to Ksh 63.5 billion and Ksh 150.4 billion in Q3 2024.
Exports Show Modest Growth
Kenya’s total exports in the third quarter of 2024 amounted to Ksh 284.4 billion, reflecting a 5.5% increase from Ksh 269.1 billion in Q3 2023. Africa continued to dominate as Kenya’s largest export destination, accounting for 39.6% of total export earnings, despite a 5.2% decline in exports to key African markets such as Egypt, Tanzania, Burundi, and South Sudan.
On the other hand, Kenya experienced an uptick in export earnings to Sudan, rising from Ksh 1.8 billion in Q3 2023 to Ksh 3.0 billion in Q3 2024. Exports to Asia also increased by 12.9%, from Ksh 70.2 billion to Ksh 79.3 billion, largely driven by higher re-exports of kerosene-type jet fuel to the United Arab Emirates and domestic exports of pigeon peas to India.
In Europe, export earnings from the European Union (EU) showed a slight decline from Ksh 38.8 billion in Q3 2023 to Ksh 38.0 billion, primarily due to reduced exports of cut flowers and kerosene-type jet fuel to the Netherlands. However, revenue from exports to the Americas surged by 46.8% to Ksh 26.2 billion, thanks to increased exports of apparel and re-exports of kerosene-type jet fuel to the United States.
Imports by Region
Imports from Asia accounted for the largest share of Kenya’s import expenditure, representing 69.6% of total imports. Expenditure on imports from Asia increased by 8.2%, reaching Ksh 470.4 billion, with China leading the way. Imports from China surged from Ksh 119.7 billion in Q3 2023 to Ksh 170.2 billion in Q3 2024. Conversely, imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fell due to reduced purchases of gas oil and motor spirit.
Import expenditure from the EU grew by 4.3% to Ksh 54.6 billion, with increased imports of medicaments from Germany and lubricating oils from the Netherlands. Imports from the United Kingdom rose by 18.2%, driven by higher imports of lubricating oils, while imports from Russia rose by 14.8%, largely due to increased purchases of chemical fertilizers, wheat, and meslin.
Imports from Africa declined by 9.9%, totalling Ksh 66.4 billion, primarily due to a decrease in the importation of maize and semi-finished products of steel from South Africa. Similarly, imports from the Americas decreased by 10.7%, largely due to a drop in the importation of butanes, aeroplane parts, and aircraft engines from the United States.
Overall, Kenya’s trade balance for the third quarter of 2024 indicates a continued dependency on imports for industrial and consumer goods, with notable shifts in commodity imports and export markets. The trends observed in Q3 2024 highlight the changing dynamics of Kenya’s trade relations, particularly with China, the EU, and the United States.
