The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), once a cohesive and dynamic political force, appears to be teetering on the brink of disintegration if recent political events are anything to go by. However, political analysts suggest that this perceived discord within the party could be a calculated strategy by its top leadership to advance specific agendas while projecting an illusion of uncertainty.
The party’s perceived internal disagreements have led to the emergence of three distinct factions:
The Opposition Bloc: This group, led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, includes Siaya Governor James Orengo, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, Saboti MP Caleb Hamisi, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. They strongly oppose the idea of a broad-based government under President William Ruto and have maintained a hardline stance against the administration.
The Pro-Government Camp: Headed by National Chairman and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, this faction also includes Suna East MP Junet Mohammed, Nairobi ODM Chairman, and Makadara MP George Aladwa. They openly support Ruto’s administration and have publicly declared their intention to back his re-election bid in 2027.
The Neutral Middle Ground: This coalition includes Deputy Party Leaders Abdulswamad Nassir and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, as well as Acting Party Leader and Kisumu Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o. Close allies of Raila Odinga, these politicians have chosen to adopt a cautious approach, refraining from taking a definitive stance on the party’s future direction.
Analysts are intrigued by the apparent divergence among Raila Odinga’s close allies. Some speculate that the actions of these three factions, including public endorsements and confrontations, may have Raila’s tacit approval.
For instance, when Sifuna and Hamisi recently criticized Ruto’s administration, they returned to ODM’s Orange House offices unchallenged, suggesting they operate with Raila’s consent. Similarly, when Wanga, Junet, and Aladwa openly support Ruto and subsequently resume party activities, it implies their actions are also sanctioned by Raila.
This suggests Raila may be leveraging political goodwill to maintain ODM’s relevance while subtly engaging with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government.
Strategic Considerations for 2027
Sources indicate that the faction endorsing Ruto seeks to position ODM as a key player in the 2027 elections, potentially proposing an ODM candidate as Ruto’s running mate. However, this strategy depends on ODM’s ability to preserve its identity and nationwide support. Failure to do so could diminish its leverage in future negotiations.
Edwin Sifuna’s opposition to Ruto’s government is also viewed through the lens of personal political ambition. Analysts suggest he may be courting support from the Mount Kenya region to strengthen his re-election bid for Nairobi’s senatorial seat in 2027.
While ODM’s internal divisions may appear genuine, the calculated actions of its leaders suggest a broader strategy. Raila Odinga’s political acumen is evident as he balances the party’s identity, maintains influence, and positions ODM strategically for the future. Whether this approach succeeds in preserving the party’s cohesion and relevance remains to be seen.
