By David Ochami
Challenging Somalia’s much-touted homogeneity and contemplating Somaliland’s secession are often considered sacrilegious. Yet, a new book argues that these very issues must be confronted if Somalia is to build a stable and inclusive future.
In Hope in the Horn: A Pathway to Transformation in Somalia, Abshir H. Abshir, Somalia’s former ambassador to Burundi, examines the country’s deep-seated challenges and offers a bold prescription for reform. Published in early 2025, the book critiques Somalia’s reliance on historical myths and calls for embracing diversity, reforming governance, and fostering better relations with its neighbours.
Abshir argues that Somalia has historically lacked a unifying national identity. He traces the nation’s collapse in 1991 to a mix of colonial legacies, Siyaad Barre’s dictatorship, and a civil war that entrenched tribalism and religious extremism. He writes:
“As Somalia rebuilds… understanding these historical dynamics is essential for crafting effective solutions and fostering a more stable and prosperous future. And as the nation reestablishes itself globally, history lessons will [come to] play in reshaping its destiny.”
Against the backdrop of Al-Shabaab’s growing threat, a struggling Somali National Army (SNA), and Somaliland’s push for independence, Abshir argues that these crises could have been mitigated if Somalia had embraced political federation, fiscal autonomy, and an inclusive national ethos from the outset.
In this 230-page book, the author rejects nostalgia for Somalia’s past glory, instead calling for a new national identity based on the rule of law, equal protection under professional security institutions, and an independent judiciary. He critiques Somalia’s post-1991 peace efforts, including the 2000 Arta and 2004 Kenya conferences, which led to the first internationally recognized government but failed to address deep-rooted cultural and political dysfunction.
On Somalia’s presumed homogeneity and the plight of minorities, Abshir is unequivocal:
“Somalis treat minorities horrendously; they isolate them, call them names, and look down on each other. Somalia’s presumed homogeneity in culture, ethnicity, language, and religion hides many negative cultural norms and may be more of a myth than a reality.”
He calls for a national transformation away from pervasive clan-based politics and religious extremism, advocating tolerance, political equality, and genuine coexistence among social groups. He argues that outdated laws and clan-based representation have outlived their usefulness.
“…clannism is one of the main characteristics of Somali society and its subsequent break-up,” he warns, urging the creation of a new national ethos.
Abshir envisions a politically federated and fiscally decentralized Somalia with clear power-sharing structures between regions and Mogadishu. He suggests a model where major natural resources are managed by Mogadishu but profits are equitably distributed among regions. On Somaliland, he predicts that the best outcome is not reunification but a loose confederation, where both entities retain separate military, immigration, and foreign policy institutions.
To combat terrorism, he urges Somalia to strengthen ties with its neighbours and provide economic, social, and cultural alternatives for its youth, while also dismantling Al-Shabaab’s online propaganda networks. He stresses that Somalia’s elite often sabotage reconciliation efforts and must be subjected to sustained internal and external pressure to enact meaningful reforms.
Abshir’s federalist blueprint draws from the experiences of the United States, India, and Nigeria, while his vision for justice and reconciliation borrows from post-genocide Rwanda and post-WWII Germany.
While Hope in the Horn does not delve into the role of religion in Somalia’s future or address the specific plight of minorities, it remains a vital addition to modern scholarship on Somalia. Abshir’s call for transformation is both urgent and compelling, making this book essential reading for policymakers, scholars, and anyone invested in the future of the Horn of Africa.
