2027 Power Struggle Puts Opposition Alliance at Risk

“The problem is not the lack of a candidate, it is the lack of a united strategy,” said political analyst Dr Jane Muli. “Once a flag bearer is announced, expect defections, grudges, and possible parallel campaigns. That could hand Ruto an easy path to re-election.”

Already, concerns are mounting that whoever is nominated will face resistance within the coalition. Kalonzo, who has previously shelved his presidential ambition on three occasions, has publicly declared that he will not back down this time. “My name will be on the ballot, no matter what,” he has insisted, words that cast doubt on his willingness to support another candidate, especially if overlooked once again.

On the other hand, Matiang’i, said to enjoy the backing of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, has quietly positioned himself as a steady, technocratic alternative. Insiders close to the former Interior Cabinet Secretary say he is reluctant to play second fiddle, particularly under Kalonzo or Gachagua. Uhuru’s re-emerging Jubilee Party, with its base in Mount Kenya, is also reportedly keen on producing its own candidate.

Gachagua, meanwhile, has carved out significant support in the Mount Kenya region and is under pressure from his base to contest. His supporters claim he commands upwards of five million votes and argue that he is better placed to take on Ruto, himself a product of the mountain. “A small river joins a big river, not the other way round,” one of his allies was recently quoted as saying, a thinly veiled message to Kalonzo and Matiang’i.

The dilemma is simple but profound: if Kalonzo is named the flag bearer, can Gachagua and Matiang’i genuinely convince their constituencies to back him? Conversely, if Gachagua is chosen, will Kalonzo’s Kamba base support a rival they view as junior? And if the coalition settles on Matiang’i, will the other two abandon their ambitions and unite behind a former bureaucrat?

Analysts warn that these unresolved questions could split the coalition down the middle. “What we’re likely to see is a repeat of past cycles, splintering, bitterness, and eventually, multiple opposition candidates on the ballot,” Dr Muli noted. “That outcome benefits only one person, President Ruto.”
Indeed, whispers of a potential fallout have already begun, with fears that the so-called “united opposition” might field not one, but two or more presidential candidates in 2027. The result would be a fragmented vote that plays directly into the hands of a well-oiled UDA political machine.

The stakes could not be higher. For a coalition that promised to speak with one voice, the prospect of division is not just a political miscalculation, it could be a fatal flaw. As consultations intensify in backrooms across the country, the opposition must grapple with a harsh reality: unless it can summon the political maturity to subordinate personal ambition to collective strategy, it may well lose the 2027 race before the campaign even begins.