President William Ruto pictured with Moses Kuria in January 2023. [Photo: Courtesy]
By TWV Political Editor
The abrupt resignation of Moses Kuria as President William Ruto’s special adviser has sent ripples through Kenya’s political landscape, catching many off guard while confirming the suspicions of seasoned observers. This move, widely regarded as a calculated step toward the 2027 elections, has sparked intense debate about Kuria’s intentions and the broader implications for the Mount Kenya region’s political dynamics.
Political analysts have offered multiple interpretations of Kuria’s resignation, with one prominent theory suggesting it is part of a deliberate strategy to fracture the Mount Kenya voting bloc, which commands over five million votes. Kuria’s departure from government is seen as an effort to bolster his Chama Cha Kazi Party, positioning it as a rival to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democratic Congress Party (DCP) and former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party. By doing so, Kuria could dilute the region’s votes, potentially benefiting President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.
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Some analysts speculate that Kuria is eyeing the presidency under his Chama Cha Kazi Party. This move is seen as a tactical counter to Gachagua, who may either contest the presidency or endorse an opposition candidate, such as Fred Matiang’i or Kalonzo Musyoka. Should Gachagua opt out of the race, Kuria’s candidacy could leave him in a position as the sole Mount Kenya presidential contender, splitting the region’s votes and weakening opposition efforts. Historical voting patterns suggest that while the Kikuyu community may support DCP candidates for parliamentary and other elective positions, Kuria could still attract nearly half of the Mount Kenya electorate in the presidential race.
An alternative narrative points to a more localised ambition: the Kiambu gubernatorial seat. In 2022, Kuria ran for governor but secured only 24,512 votes, finishing a distant fifth. He attributed his loss to Gachagua’s alleged interference in favour of rivals, notably the current governor, Kimani Wamatangi. Reports of Wamatangi’s failure to deliver on campaign promises have fueled speculation that Kuria is now positioning himself for a comeback in 2027.
Analysts note that during the 2022 elections, President Ruto initially supported Kuria for the Kenya Kwanza gubernatorial ticket, but Gachagua’s influence led to Wamatangi’s endorsement instead. Kuria’s resignation may reflect a strategic retreat from Ruto’s inner circle to avoid being tethered to an administration whose popularity in Kiambu could wane by 2027. By stepping down now, Kuria gains time to reconnect with Kiambu voters and rebuild his political base in the Mount Kenya region.
A third perspective suggests that Kuria’s resignation is a preemptive move to distance himself from potential political fallout. Word had surfaced about plans to detain and prosecute Gachagua, a move that could spark significant unrest in Mount Kenya. By exiting the government, Kuria may be insulating himself from any backlash associated with such a controversial action, thereby safeguarding his political future.
Kuria’s resignation also reignites the question of who holds sway as the Mount Kenya region’s political kingpin. While Gachagua has claimed that Uhuru Kenyatta retains this mantle, as stated in a television interview last year, the region’s leadership remains contested. Kuria’s move could signal his intent to challenge both Gachagua and Uhuru for regional dominance, leveraging his Chama Cha Kazi Party to consolidate support.
Moses Kuria’s resignation marks a pivotal moment in Kenya’s political trajectory as the 2027 elections loom. Whether his sights are set on the presidency, the Kiambu governorship, or regional leadership, his departure underscores the fluidity of alliances and the high-stakes manoeuvring within the Mount Kenya region. As Kuria navigates this complex political terrain, his actions will likely reshape the region’s voting patterns and influence the national stage.
For now, the Mount Kenya electorate and the nation at large watch closely as Kuria’s next steps unfold, setting the tone for what promises to be a fiercely contested election season.
