By The Weekly Vision Reporter
Kenya’s growing reliance on wind and solar power has emerged as a fresh challenge for the national electricity grid, with Kenya Power warning that the rapid expansion of variable renewable energy could undermine grid stability and ultimately increase the cost of electricity for consumers. Kenya Power says variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, particularly wind and solar, now account for 34 per cent of the country’s energy mix during peak daytime demand of 1,900MW, rising to 36 per cent when demand falls to about 1,200MW.
The figures have prompted the power utility to call for a more cautious approach to bringing additional wind and solar generation onto the national grid. At the heart of the concern is the unpredictable nature of wind and solar generation. Unlike geothermal and other forms of baseload generation, output from wind and solar can rise or fall sharply depending on weather conditions.
Kenya Power says sudden changes in renewable generation can affect the frequency and voltage of electricity supplied, forcing the grid operator to bring in additional generation to maintain stability.
Kenya Power Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Dr (Eng) Joseph Siror said global benchmarks point to VRE accounting for about 15 per cent of a grid’s total firm capacity. Kenya, however, has already exceeded that level under its current power purchase arrangements, with VRE penetration rising above 20 per cent. The utility says this creates a difficult balancing act. When wind and solar output suddenly drops, other generators have to be dispatched to fill the gap.
“Given the intermittent nature of wind and solar, we have no option but to dispatch and pay for generators, increasing the overall cost of power,” Dr Siror said. This raises a potentially uncomfortable question for consumers: could renewable energy that appears cheaper at the point of generation ultimately contribute to a more expensive electricity system if the grid is not adequately equipped to handle it?
Kenya Power believes the answer lies in strengthening the country’s baseload generation and investing in technologies capable of cushioning fluctuations from renewable sources. Battery storage is frequently presented as a solution to the intermittency challenge. Kenya Power, however, says batteries alone may not eliminate the problem. The utility argues that when wind and solar production falls, batteries must have sufficient stored energy to supply the grid. Their effectiveness therefore depends on how much energy has been stored before renewable generation drops.
Kenya Power is consequently advocating greater investment in geothermal and hydroelectric generation, which it says can provide greater grid stability and help the system recover when intermittent renewable sources are unavailable. Kenya already derives much of its relatively stable electricity from geothermal, hydro, thermal generation and imports. According to Kenya Power, these sources currently account for about 80 per cent of the grid’s energy mix.
Kenya’s exposure becomes even more striking when compared with other countries in the Eastern Africa Power Pool.
According to Kenya Power, Egypt’s VRE quantum stands at 10.4 per cent, Ethiopia’s at 5.3 per cent, Uganda’s at 4 per cent and Tanzania’s at just 1.2 per cent. Kenya’s figure is therefore substantially higher than those of its regional peers. The utility is now calling for an increase in more stable baseload generation to complement renewable energy, rather than allowing intermittent sources to expand without corresponding investment in grid-balancing capacity.
Kenya Power says several baseload projects are expected to strengthen the electricity system. They include KenGen’s Olkaria I extension of 61MW, Olkaria 7 and 8 with a combined capacity of 80MW, Globeleq Menengai’s 35MW, Orpower’s 22MW Menengai project, 200MW of electricity imports from Ethiopia, the 100MW Paka Silali geothermal project and the 28MW Nabuyole project. The utility also expects additional output from the Masinga Dam following plans to raise its water level by 1.5 metres. The move is projected to increase annual electricity generation by about 83GWh.
Other baseload projects in the pipeline include a proposed 300MW LNG power plant, the 700MW High Grand Falls project and the 90MW Karura Falls project. Kenya has positioned renewable energy at the centre of its long-term energy strategy, drawing on its substantial geothermal, wind and solar resources.
But Kenya Power’s latest warning highlights a less visible side of the energy transition: generating clean electricity is only part of the equation. Getting that electricity reliably to consumers requires a grid capable of absorbing, balancing and managing fluctuations in supply. As Kenya adds more wind and solar capacity, the debate is therefore shifting from how much renewable energy the country can generate to how much intermittent power the national grid can safely accommodate — and who ultimately pays for the cost of keeping that grid stable.
For millions of electricity consumers, that distinction could determine whether Kenya’s renewable-energy expansion translates into cheaper, cleaner electricity or a more complicated and potentially costlier power system. The challenge facing Kenya Power is therefore not simply how to generate more electricity, but how to ensure that the country’s green-energy ambitions do not come at the expense of reliability or affordability.
