- Although Kalonzo Musyoka has on many occasions publicly declared that he has no time for President Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza, he is a man known to make very unexpected decisions at the eleventh hour. The big question however is, what If Kalonzo Musyoka swallows his pride and joins William Ruto? What are his chances of being considered as Ruto’s running mate in 2027?
By The Weekly Vision
Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is a man caught between a hard place and a rock, politically speaking. His political future seems to be hanging in the balance and having been out of government for years, the tycoons who have in the past financed his campaign kitty are said to be pushing him to ditch the Azimio la Umoja Coalition party and join Kenya Kwanza Coalition of President William Ruto and scheme on his political move from within the government.
What has come out to play publicly is that President William Ruto is busy assembling a team that will succeed him in 2033. Just as late President Moi was surrounded by a team of over 5 politicians from Kanu angling to succeed him, Ruto could find himself in the same scenario. As things stand now in Kenya, it is not automatic for the Deputy President to automatically becomes the preferred candidate by the outgoing president. It happened with the late President Moi when he sidestepped Prof. George Saitoti his DP and campaigned for Uhuru Kenyatta before the 2002 elections. Late President Mwai Kibaki also sidelined his DP Kalonzo Musyoka and supported Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2022 elections. The same scenario repeated itself in the last general elections when Uhuru Kenyatta preferred opposition leader Raila Odinga against his deputy William Ruto.
President Ruto has several potential politicians around him who are harbouring presidential ambitions. His Deputy Rigathi Gachagua is leading the pack followed by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi who is being seen by some as Ruto’s preferred successor. Sources say President Ruto could opt to have Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate in 2027 and drop Gachagua. Analysts say President Ruto and his DP Rigathi Gachagua are likely to fall out before the next general elections. Exit Gachagua, welcome Kalonzo perhaps to take over from Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi who will deputise William Ruto in 2027, sources say. This is the political arithmetic the Ruto team is said to be working on. Political pundits argue that Kalonzo’s only means to get to the government is to join Ruto, now.
President Ruto strategists are also aware that if Rigathi Gachagua leaves and joins other forces to deny Ruto victory in 2027, the entry of Kalonzo and the Ukambani votes will cancel out the Mount Kenya vote. Ruto’s strategists now believe that a combination of Ruto, Kalonzo and Mudavadi is a political force to reckon with in 2027. This arrangement is based on a political theory that ODM leader Raila Odinga will still run for the presidency in 2027. It is against such fears that Kalonzo’s advisors and financiers believe that he has no chance of flying the Azimio presidential flag as long as Raila and Martha Karua are still in active politics.
Although Kalonzo has on many occasions publicly declared that he has no time for Ruto and Kenya Kwanza, he is a man known to make very unexpected decisions at the eleventh hour. But the big question however is, If Kalonzo Musyoka swallows his pride and joins William Ruto what are his chances of being considered as Ruto’s running mate in 2027? First, that can only be possible if Rigathi Gachagua is dropped by Ruto and if the President strikes a deal with Musalia Mudavadi to support him and Kalonzo with a promise of being either the presidential candidate in 2031 or be Kalonzo’s deputy.
As far as Ruto’s strategists are concerned, the rebellion in Mount Kenya cannot be sustained up to the next elections, therefore their arithmetic is not having them in their plan A. Having been out of government for years, Kalonzo is most likely to accept even the position of Speaker should Ruto, Gachagua and Mudavadi run as a team in 2027. The inclusion of Kalonzo will again complicate matters for Musalia Mudavadi who believes that upon the exit of Ruto, he is the most suited as the next president considering that he has been a vice president and Deputy Prime Minister and now A prime Cabinet Secretary, a position which is equivalent to that of Prime Minister. Having risen through the political ranks, the only position left for Mudavadi now is the presidency.
However, politics being the game of numbers, Kalonzo seems to have a bigger constituency than Mudavadi going by the previous voting patterns. Kalonzo still commands Ukambani votes as opposed to Mudavadi who commands just a small percentage of Luhya votes. The last scenario is whether Raila Odinga can drop Martha Karua as a running mate and take Kalonzo in 2027. This is a very complicated scenario but sources say Raila is being pushed to drop Karua. Those behind this move claim she did not bring anything to the table in terms of not only presidential votes but also other elective positions.
According to statistics of the last general elections, in her backyard of Kirinyaga County, Ruto won with majority votes and interestingly, not even a single MCA was elected from Kirinyaga County on Narc-Kenya ticket. So the only way to ensure Kalonzo remains in Azimio is for Raila to drop Martha and replace her with Kalonzo. All said and done, Kalonzo is most likely to join Ruto to be sure of being part and parcel of the next government.
