By The Weekly Vision Team
A political union between ODM leader Raila Odinga and Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua is destined for an acrimonious dissolution if a recent message by Mr Odinga’s ally Prof. Makau Mutua on his X handle is anything to go by. The message has since sent cold shivers down the spines of those opposed to the National Dialogue Committee report within the Azimio coalition. Prof. Mutua said, “Azimio isn’t a forced marriage. Please leave if you cannot support the NADCO report, which is a product of the party’s agreed democratic processes.”
Analysts opine that both Raila Odinga and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka approved the NADCO report and have publicly endorsed it, which, if put into action, will establish the positions of opposition leader and two deputies. Pundits interpreted the message by Prof. Mutua as having been directed at Martha Karua and her allies: that the doors out of Azimio are wide open and that anyone uncomfortable is free to leave.
Prof. Mutua is a trusted Raila Odinga ally; he was the spokesperson and head of his presidential campaign secretariat in the run-up to the last general election. He is also a close ally of Kalonzo Musyoka. In 2022, it is said that he convinced Kalonzo to remain in Azimio and support Raila’s fifth attempt at the presidency.
In response to Prof. Mutua’s message, Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, who has also joined forces with Martha Karua to oppose the NADCO report, said that they are not in Azimio by invitation but rather as founding members of the coalition. Prof. Mutua, in a quick rejoinder, told Kioni, “I will take my brother Kioni seriously when he and his Kamwene siblings organize maandamano in the mountains.”.
Sources say that a large section of voters from Mount Kenya East counties have publicly acknowledged that they feel undervalued by President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration. They have declared that they are willing to have discussions with Kalonzo Musyoka if Azimio picks him to be their presidential candidate in 2027.
The MPs have plotted to dump William Ruto for Kalonzo Musyoka and reach out to their Ukambani counterparts. The 11 MPs from Meru counties elected through the UDA party are said to have approached their Ukambani counterparts to form an alliance to push for their political interests. Reports say that President Ruto’s UDA party is in a panic following a new political move by the MPs to revive the Eastern Province political caucus and the political linkages between the Meru and Ukambani people.
Sources say that Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka are carefully considering a new strategy for approaching the 2027 elections without Martha Karua and Kioni. This is the reason why Kalonzo’s supporters, the Meru MPs, are now being contacted to fill the political vacuum. Analysts have often stated that there is a very good chance that Kalonzo will defeat Ruto in the first round with Raila’s support or endorsement.
Sources now say President Ruto’s big political headache in 2027 is that Raila Odinga and retired president Uhuru Kenyatta will not be in the picture and that he will not have an agenda to sell to the people of the mountain. With Raila Odinga out of the picture, Mount Kenya East now sees Kalonzo as a potential candidate who can defeat Ruto in the first round.
Analysts now say that the MPs from Kenya Kwanza from the mountain have openly told Ruto that the ground is hostile and that UDA has lost political events in the region. Analysts now say that the Kenya Kwanza ratings in the mountains now stand at 30% as compared to 70% in 2022.
