According to ODM party insiders, Raila Odinga holds a soft spot for Mr Wycliffe Oparanya who has shown consistent loyalty to party activities, unlike Ali Hassan Joho, who disappeared from the political scene after the last general elections, only to reappear when there were signs of Raila Odinga’s possible success in the African Union Commission chairmanship race
By The Weekly Vision Team
Speculation is rife within political circles to the effect that Raila Odinga’s ODM party is headed for a major split. Sources say the party is struggling to contain dissenting voices over several pending issues, key among them being who between former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and former Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho should be picked as successors to leader Raila Odinga.
The power struggle in the party is pegged on Raila Odinga successfully winning the African Union Commission chairmanship. Consequently, there is a growing concern that the power struggle within the party may lead to huge fallout. Addressing party supporters in Wajir County last week, Mr Odinga addressed the unrest within his party by publicly announcing that the party leadership would be entrusted in the capable hands of Wycliffe Oparanya and Ali Hassan Joho, both serving as deputy party leaders.
Nonetheless, by ODM’s constitution, the position of party leader can only be held by one individual. Regardless of the duration it may take, there will come a time when a difficult decision will have to be made to determine who will assume the full mantle as the substantive party leader between Oparanya and Joho. According to ODM party insiders, Raila Odinga holds a soft spot for Mr Oparanya, who has shown consistent loyalty to party activities, unlike Joho, who disappeared from the political scene after the last general elections, only to reappear when there were signs of Raila Odinga’s possible success in the African Union Commission chairmanship race.
At the Wajir rally, Mr Joho declared that he would be running for the presidency in 2027 on the ODM ticket, a declaration that was perceived by party insiders as a way of eclipsing Mr Oparanya’s ambition of grabbing the running mate position behind Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in 2027.
Analysts seem to be reading from the same script that the key issue at hand in the ODM party is determining a successor to Raila Odinga between Oparanya and Joho. To address this question, a thorough analysis of multiple factors is required by the party’s top leadership. If a rumoured political alliance between Raila Odinga, President William Ruto Ruto, and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi comes to fruition, Mr Oparanya stands a strong chance of securing the ODM party’s leadership. In this particular scenario, it would be crucial for Raila Odinga to back Mr Oparanya since his support for his party leader is unwavering, unlike Joho, who might not wish to work with his sworn political enemy, William Ruto.
There are also rumours circulating in town that if Raila Odinga emerges victorious in the African Union Commission chairmanship, he might be compelled to swallow his pride and endorse Ruto’s bid for a second term. Insiders familiar with these discussions assert that Mr Odinga is willing to back William Ruto, but only if Musalia Mudavadi becomes his running mate in 2027 and a presidential candidate himself in 2032. This proposition is reportedly gaining significant support from a majority of Raila Odinga’s supporters, particularly those from Nyanza and Western regions.
It is a well-established fact that senior politicians close to Raila Odinga within the ODM party have issued warning signals to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, making it clear that their endorsement for him to fly the Azimio presidential flag in 2027 is not automatic. A cross-section of Mr Odinga’s supporters has sent coded messages to Kalonzo that he should not bank on their support as new political alliances could be in the offing ahead of the 2027 elections.
At one point, a close Odinga ally almost let the cat out of the basket when he nearly confirmed the Raila-Ruto-Mudavadi alliance. The ally claimed that the ODM Pentagon could be regrouping for 2027. For those who might not be aware, the ODM Pentagon was the party’s top decision-making organ, which brought together Raila, Ruto, Mudavadi, Najib Balala, and the late Joe Nyagah. According to sources, the proposed alliance would see William Ruto run for the presidency with Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate from Kenya Kwanza and ODM to produce a Prime Cabinet Secretary.
To counter this plan, Kalonzo Musyoka is also said to be working on his arithmetic to reach out to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua with the hope of forming an alliance with him. It is known that should William Ruto drop DP Gachagua for Musalia Mudavadi, then Gachagua may take revenge by ensuring his supporters from the Mount Kenya region vote against William Ruto’s formation.
Sources say several Azimio affiliate parties are privy to the deal between Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, and they are now busy plotting how to counter the move, with Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua, DAP_K leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Muranga Governor Mwangi Wa Iria, and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni crafting a formidable team to sponsor a candidate in 2027.
