Had Raila Odinga been the sole candidate, he would have been assured of the support of the majority of votes from the 19 East African countries, namely Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eretria, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, South Sudan, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Youssouf’s entry will affect the support for Raila Odinga. Another bump on Raila’s path is the language aspect. Raila speaks English, German, Kiswahili, and a bit of French. Unfortunately, there is no German-speaking country in Africa
By The Weekly Vision Team
Raila Odinga’s mission to assume the role of AUC Chairperson was thrown into disarray last week when Somalia and Djibouti both fronted candidates for the same post, causing significant turmoil in his campaigns. However, it is the entry of Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, that has caught Kenya and Mr. Odinga’s team off guard.
It should be highlighted that the endorsement of a candidate by Djibouti is perceived by diplomats in Nairobi as a manifestation of the underlying diplomatic dispute between Djibouti and Nairobi. Kenya and Djibouti have a history of misunderstandings in the region; it’s not the first time both countries have come at odds with each other on the diplomatic front. In 2019, Kenya and Djibouti took their diplomatic rivalry for the United Nations Security Council non-permanent seat to New York, with each country’s diplomats trying to outdo the other in lobbying for votes.
Despite the high diplomatic lobbying by Djibouti, Djibouti lost to Kenya in the election for the African Union representative for the UNSC seat. During the lobbying, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s efforts to convene a meeting between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh on the margins of the UN General Assembly failed to produce a solution.
On August 22, the Egyptian Permanent Representative to the African Union, Osama Abdel Khalek, chaired a session in which the Permanent Representatives Committee voted for Kenya 37–13 in a secret ballot, meaning Nairobi managed to attain the required two-thirds majority to vie for the UNSC seat as the AU-endorsed candidate.
Analysts now see Djibouti’s entry into the race as a plot for revenge against Kenya. However, the majority is of the view that the narrative that Raila would win convincingly and overwhelmingly is quickly fizzling out. It has been discovered that several roadblocks are emerging outside of Raila’s influence. Mr Youssouf’s candidature, according to analysts, is now giving Raila Odinga and President William Ruto sleepless nights.
To begin with, Youssouf is a very long-serving minister for foreign affairs and is well conversant with diplomatic issues. His entry has already created division in the Eastern Africa block, which comprises 19 countries, namely Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eretria, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, South Sudan, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
Had Raila Odinga been the sole candidate, he would have been assured of the majority of the votes from the East African region. Youssouf’s entry will affect the support for Raila Odinga. Another bump on Raila’s path is the language aspect. Raila speaks English, German, Kiswahili, and a bit of French. Unfortunately, there is no German-speaking country in Africa.
There is the emergence of a Francophone factor in the campaigns. Francophone countries are those that designate French as an official language or whose people primarily speak French. There is fear that Francophone countries could gang up and support Djibouti over Kenya.
Madagascar, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Guinea, Rwanda, Burundi, Benin, Togo, the Central African Republic, the Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, the Comoros, and the Seychelles are all categorized as Francophone. Will Raila manage to convince the Francophone countries to leave one of their own (Djibouti) for him?
Religious factors have also come into play as the campaigns continue to gain momentum. Djibouti is said to lobby nations where Islam is the dominant religion. Analysis says there are about 16 African countries where Islam is the dominant religion, and Djibouti is one of them. Will this work against Raila Odinga? As things stand now, Raila’s road to the AUC chairmanship is bumpy.
