The TIFA Research survey released today reveals that many Kenyans, especially those from the Mt. Kenya region, expect Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki to potentially fill the position of Deputy President if Rigathi Gachagua is removed from office through an impeachment motion. However, the survey did not measure the popularity of other potential candidates such as Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, or Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga.
The poll indicates mixed opinions about Gachagua’s performance, with Mt. Kenya residents rating him significantly higher than those from other regions. Specifically, 59% of Mt. Kenya respondents view his performance as “excellent” or “good,” compared to just 27% in other areas. Conversely, 28% of Kenyans outside Mt. Kenya consider his performance “poor” or “very bad,” compared to only 11% within Mt. Kenya.
The survey also reveals that opinions on Gachagua’s impeachment align closely with views on his performance. Among those who rate his performance poorly, 47% support his impeachment, while only 11% of his opponents feel the same. On the flip side, 53% of those who view his performance positively oppose impeachment, compared to 22% who support it.
A significant proportion of Kenyans believe Gachagua has strong support in Mount Kenya, with 49% nationwide agreeing he enjoys either “total” or “quite a lot” of support. This sentiment is even stronger within Mt. Kenya itself, where 68% express this belief. Across all regions, very few Kenyans believe he has “almost no support.”
Regarding the impeachment process, Kenyans are divided, with a slight majority (41%) supporting Gachagua’s removal and 38% opposing it. The contrast is sharp between Mt. Kenya residents, 69% of whom oppose impeachment, and residents of other regions, where 28% oppose it.
Among those who support impeachment, the most common reason cited is Gachagua’s perceived favouritism toward his Mt. Kenya community (35%), followed by dissatisfaction with his performance (20%). Notably, 17% could not provide a specific reason. Those who oppose impeachment frequently argue that Gachagua is being unfairly targeted (36%), or that his leadership has been satisfactory (18%). Others (15%) believe both Gachagua and President Ruto should be allowed to complete their term without disruption.
The survey shows that voters from Raila Odinga’s 2022 campaign are more likely to support the DP’s impeachment (54%), compared to Ruto’s supporters (34%). Conversely, 45% of Ruto voters oppose the impeachment, compared to 29% of Raila voters.
As the impeachment process unfolds, key questions remain. Will President Ruto respond to Gachagua’s recent apology at a church service, and will Gachagua defend himself or remain absent from the proceedings? Possible outcomes include Gachagua’s resignation, failure of the National Assembly to approve the impeachment, rejection of the motion by the Senate, or judicial intervention overturning the Senate’s decision.
Over the weekend, the DP’s legal team, composed of experienced and politically astute lawyers, was revealed. Gachagua’s supporters have already questioned the legitimacy of the public participation exercise, alleging bias in participant selection, fraud in form submissions, and insufficient time allowed for feedback. Several Mt. Kenya MPs who initially supported the impeachment motion have since reversed their stance, citing feedback from their constituents. The survey suggests that a majority in Mt. Kenya continues to support the Deputy President.
As for the president’s potential choice of a replacement for Gachagua, it remains uncertain how much backing he would receive, especially if the successor hails from Mt. Kenya. TIFA plans to address other current issues in a second release next week.
