Political Shifts Ahead of 2027: Azimio Coalition Nears Collapse as New Alliances Are Formed

As the once-vibrant Azimio coalition approaches its end ahead of the 2027 general elections, new political players are actively strategizing to forge fresh alliances aimed at securing victory. Sources indicate that former President Uhuru Kenyatta is investing significant financial resources into bolstering the Jubilee Party as the leading political vehicle in the Mount Kenya region.

However, Uhuru understands that the Jubilee Party cannot achieve electoral success independently. To address this challenge, a robust political coalition is being carefully constructed, with talks underway between the Jubilee Party and the Wiper Party, led by Kalonzo Musyoka.

Insiders close to the negotiations suggest that Uhuru is advocating for Kalonzo to be the presidential candidate for a coalition formed by the remnants of Azimio, Wiper, and Jubilee, with a running mate selected from either the Mount Kenya region or Western Kenya. The leadership from Mount Kenya is determined to ensure that the Nairobi gubernatorial candidate emerges from their coalition, either by nominating one of their own or by backing an external candidate to compete against those from Kenya Kwanza and ODM.

A notable challenger for the current governor, Johnson Sakaja, is former Nairobi Governor Dr. Evans Kidero. Although Kidero does not hail from the mountain region, he is viewed as a strong contender. His potential return as a candidate is part of a strategy to reintroduce him for the governorship after his previous single term and a narrow second-place finish in the 2022 election as an independent.

Supporters of Kidero argue that his time in office was advantageous for the Mount Kenya region, as he fostered valuable connections between Kikuyu businesspeople and the Nairobi county government. During his governorship, Kidero also built a strong partnership with Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, despite his party leader, Raila Odinga, being in opposition.

Uhuru believes that nominating Kidero as the gubernatorial candidate, alongside a Kikuyu running mate and Kalonzo’s presidential campaign, could secure substantial votes from the Mount Kenya region and attract support from Kalonzo’s followers in Ukambani. Meanwhile, with ODM likely to nominate Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi for the gubernatorial race, it is expected that the Luo community will rally behind Kidero, bolstering his chances against other candidates.

The combined votes from the Kikuyu, Kamba, and Luo communities could be sufficient to elect Kidero as governor. If Uhuru and his political allies endorse Kidero, especially with a strong running mate from outside the mountain region, his prospects for success could improve significantly. Speculation also suggests that Uhuru may consider appointing Eugene Wamalwa as Kidero’s deputy, a move that could divide the Luhya electorate.

With three Luhya candidates—Sakaja, Wanyonyi, and Wamalwa—potentially positioned as deputies to Kidero, the fragmentation of Luhya votes may ultimately benefit Kidero. However, it remains uncertain whether Eugene would agree to take on a deputy role.