President William Ruto, who no longer enjoys the level of support from the Mount Kenya region that he had in 2022, is actively seeking to forge alliances with other communities to make up for the loss of Kikuyu backing. Analysts suggest that Ruto still maintains strong support in Embu, Meru, and Tharaka Nithi counties
As the momentum for political regrouping intensifies in preparation for the 2027 elections, investigations reveal the emergence of new tribal alliances. Just a week after the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru Association rebranded to include the Akamba community, it has come to light that efforts are underway to revive the dormant Kamatusa group as a counterbalance to Gema.
The Kamatusa coalition, which consists of the Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, and Samburu communities, was a significant political force during the tenure of late President Daniel Moi. He strategically united these communities to bolster his political survival in the face of opposition against his regime. It appears that the 2027 elections will largely be driven by tribal affiliations, with expectations that more tribal coalitions will form in the lead-up to the vote.
President William Ruto, who no longer enjoys the level of support from the Mount Kenya region that he had in 2022, is actively seeking to forge alliances with other communities to make up for the loss of Kikuyu backing. Analysts suggest that Ruto still maintains strong support in Embu, Meru, and Tharaka Nithi counties.
There are signs that the Mount Kenya region may shift its significant support to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the 2027 elections. In response, Ruto’s allies are already strategizing on how to counter this shift, including exploring potential ties with ODM leader Raila Odinga. Analysts warn that if Ruto were to align with Raila’s ODM, it could present a formidable challenge for any GEMA-backed candidate to beat him at the polls.
Conversations are also circulating about the potential revival of the Western Alliance, originally formed by Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi ahead of the 2007 elections. The alliance was successful in securing a large share of parliamentary and civic seats in Nyanza and the western regions for the duo at the time, and it could play a crucial role in Ruto’s strategy for securing a second term. However, Ruto’s reliance on the Kamatusa group and the Western Alliance hinges on whether Raila Odinga manages to secure the chairmanship of the African Union Commission.
If Raila fails in his bid for this position, there is a possibility he may contest the presidency against Ruto in 2027, or alternatively, form a coalition with Ruto with an eye on securing the position of Prime Minister for himself. Sources indicate that Raila is unlikely to support Kalonzo’s presidential bid, even if the Mount Kenya region endorses him.
In this complex political landscape, if Raila were to form a coalition with Ruto, with himself as the proposed Prime Minister, Kalonzo’s position would become even more vulnerable.
