While Raila confirmed on Sunday that he would remain active in Kenyan politics, even if he is appointed the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) in February, it seems unlikely that he will retain the same influence over the party that he has led for nearly two decades
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga’s announcement that the party will field a presidential candidate in the 2027 election is set to ignite a fierce succession battle that could either strengthen or fracture the Orange party.
While Raila confirmed on Sunday that he would remain active in Kenyan politics, even if he is appointed the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) in February, it seems unlikely that he will retain the same influence over the party that he has led for nearly two decades. Having contested for the presidency unsuccessfully five times, Raila’s decision to step back could pave the way for new leadership within ODM.
With the political landscape significantly different from 2022, particularly following the near-collapse of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, several ODM leaders are positioning themselves to take over. Despite Raila’s call for patience, contenders are already vying for leadership.
His announcement about seeking to succeed Moussa Faki as AUC chairman has spurred intense competition among those eager to inherit the helm of the party. Among the potential successors are deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi.
Sources reveal that the formation of President William Ruto’s broad-based government has provided Raila with some relief, helping him manage the rising tensions within the party. The new Cabinet reshuffle resulted in Joho, Wandayi, and Opiyo securing ministerial positions, forcing them to step away from active party politics. In the subsequent reshuffle, Arati was appointed deputy party leader, alongside Mombasa’s Abdulwamad Nassir, while Wanga assumed the position of national chairperson.
Raila’s Sunday announcement also diminishes the possibility of ODM leveraging its broad-based government strategy to form a coalition with the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
