As Francis Atwoli’s long tenure as Secretary General of the Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU) nears its end, the labour movement braces for a contentious leadership battle, as politically charged as it is vital to the future of Kenya’s workers. Atwoli, who has led COTU for 23 years, has announced his intent to retire, unleashing a wave of speculation and behind-the-scenes power plays.
Once a staunch supporter of Raila Odinga and the Azimio coalition, the COTU leader has long been a polarising figure in Kenyan politics. During the 2022 general elections, he rallied trade unions behind Odinga’s presidential bid, openly opposing then-candidate William Ruto. Yet, in a stunning turnaround, Atwoli switched allegiance to Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government, a move that shocked many and prompted questions about his true motivations. This strategic shift won him the government’s favour but stirred debate within the labour movement.
Atwoli’s retirement announcement, made in early 2025 at the funeral of a close aide to Raila Odinga, now casts a shadow over COTU. After 23 years at the helm, his departure raises critical questions about who can succeed him. The power struggle ahead will extend beyond union officials; political heavyweights are already manoeuvring to shape the outcome of the 2026 COTU elections.
Historically, COTU has elevated its Deputy Secretary General to the top role upon a leader’s retirement. Many expect Benson Okwaro, the current Deputy Secretary General, to ascend naturally. However, this tradition is not assured. Ernest Nadome emerges as a contender, the ambitious First Assistant Secretary-General eyeing the prestigious post. A seasoned trade unionist from Baragoi in Baringo North, Nadome is adept at political manoeuvring and may challenge Okwaro’s claim.
What makes this leadership contest explosive is the pervasive influence of politics. Before the 2022 elections, President Ruto’s loyalists vowed to oust Atwoli, whom they saw as a thorn in their side. Atwoli thwarted their plans by aligning with Ruto’s camp, undermining their strategy. Now, as he prepares to step down, the government reportedly seeks a successor who aligns closely with its agenda.
With Atwoli’s retirement on the horizon, the stage is set for a high-stakes clash. Will the government’s favoured candidate prevail, or will COTU’s rank-and-file resist external pressures? The coming years will reshape Kenya’s labour movement, with Atwoli’s successor inheriting not only his role but also the complex political currents surrounding it.
Ultimately, one question lingers: will Atwoli’s replacement be decided by union members alone, or will it spark a broader political struggle? One thing is clear, his exit will do more than change leadership; it will unleash a political storm.
