By Our Political Correspondent
Raila Odinga, the long-standing leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), now stands at a critical political juncture as two pivotal by-elections approach in his Luo Nyanza stronghold, Ugunja and Kasipul. The outcome of these contests is poised to reshape regional alliances and test the resilience of Raila’s influence within the ODM party and beyond.
In Ugunja, the vacancy follows the appointment of former MP Opiyo Wandayi, a key Raila ally, to a cabinet position. Though an ODM stronghold, the race to replace Wandayi is complex. The once-cohesive Siaya County political landscape is now fractured, with rivalry between supporters of Governor James Orengo and Senator Oburu Odinga, Raila’s elder brother. Orengo, a Ugenya native whose community holds sway in Ugunja, is likely to back a loyal candidate, complicating Raila’s selection process.
Senator Oburu, who is increasingly estranged from Governor Orengo politically, is unlikely to support any candidate championed by the governor. This rivalry places Raila in a delicate position. Further complicating matters, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has quietly gained ground in the area. While its chances of clinching the seat appear slim, a divided ODM could inadvertently boost its prospects.
In the 2022 general election, Wandayi stepped aside from the Siaya gubernatorial race in favour of Orengo, receiving a direct ODM nomination in return. He won with 32,359 votes against UDA’s Fredrick Dor, who garnered a paltry 3,156. Given the tensions within ODM, Raila is expected to settle the matter with a direct nomination, favouring loyalty and cohesion over open primaries.
The death of MP Ongondo Were has left a void in Kasipul constituency. MP Were was a close ally of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and his replacement is expected to come from her camp. Here too, Raila must carefully balance interests, particularly with the looming influence of former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, whose relationship with both Raila and Wanga remains strained.
Kidero, who lost the Homa Bay governorship to Wanga in a fiercely contested race, may see the by-election as an opportunity for political resurgence. Political analysts suggest he is likely to support a rival candidate to challenge Wanga’s choice, transforming the race into a symbolic rematch between the two political heavyweights.
Speculation suggests Ongondo Were’s eldest son may be offered the ODM ticket, with Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma openly backing the idea. However, another name is gaining traction, Daniel Okindo Majiwa. Majiwa, who hails from North Kamagak in the Central Kasipul ward, was the runner-up in both the ODM nominations and the general election. Despite running as an independent after a contested nomination, he maintained a strong showing, finishing second on both occasions.
Now reportedly aligned with the Kidero faction, Majiwa’s potential return to the ballot, either as an independent or under a rival party, poses a credible challenge to ODM’s cohesion in the region.
As the by-elections near, Raila faces a high-stakes decision: preserve unity within ODM by handpicking loyal candidates or risk internal discord through open nominations. Either path carries political consequences that may echo far beyond Ugunja and Kasipul.
