ODM’s push for a Raila candidature appears to ride on the growing traction of the “one term” slogan — a phrase that is rapidly gaining popularity across the country as dissatisfaction with President Ruto’s administration grows. [Photo: Courtesy]
By The Weekly Vision Political Affairs Desk
As Kenya’s political landscape begins to shift in anticipation of the 2027 General Election, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is reportedly advancing a bold and pragmatic strategy: positioning its party leader, Raila Odinga, as a presidential candidate in a potential alliance with President William Ruto.
A senior party insider disclosed to The Weekly Vision that ODM is actively engaging in coalition-building discussions aimed at reshaping Kenya’s political architecture. The emerging alliance, which also includes Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi, Kisii Governor Simba Arati, and Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale, is structured around a proposed power-sharing agreement. Central to this plan is the reintroduction of the position of Prime Minister and two Deputy Prime Ministers, a model aimed at delivering a clear electoral victory while promoting national cohesion.
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ODM’s push appears to ride on the growing traction of the “one term” slogan, a phrase that is rapidly gaining popularity across the country as dissatisfaction with President Ruto’s administration grows. The discontent is largely driven by economic hardships and a surge in Gen Z-led protests. In this context, ODM strategists are looking to replicate the unity and impact of the 2002 National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), which dislodged the long-standing KANU regime.
To counter the rising public anger and political fragmentation, ODM is advocating for a broad-based coalition that transcends traditional party lines. The March 2025 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM is seen as the first formal step in this strategic direction.
President Ruto has publicly framed the agreement as a commitment to national transformation, economically, socially, and politically, rather than a mere electoral arrangement. Yet within ODM, the idea is divisive. Senior figures such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo have voiced their opposition, warning that the alliance could erode the party’s identity and alienate its support base. Others, including Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma and Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, support the alignment, citing its potential to ensure national unity and policy continuity.
Regional Consolidation The architects of the proposed coalition aim to consolidate voting blocs in Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Coast, and North Eastern Kenya. Raila’s enduring influence in Nyanza, reinforced by robust grassroots mobilization, complements Ruto’s stronghold in the Rift Valley. ODM’s historical strength in Western and Coastal regions adds considerable weight, while the inclusion of North Eastern leaders like Duale provides a broader ethnic and regional appeal. This strategy could deliver a first-round victory, particularly in the National Assembly and Senate. The 2002 NARC victory, achieved through uniting Central, Nyanza, and parts of Western and Coast, offers a powerful precedent. A Ruto-Raila-Kalonzo coalition could mirror that success, especially if it undercuts rival mobilisation efforts in Mount Kenya, where Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Martha Karua are reportedly preparing a counter-alliance.
Power-Sharing Framework Reintroducing the Prime Minister’s position, with two deputies, would provide a practical mechanism for accommodating multiple interests. Such an arrangement would echo the 2008 Grand Coalition Government, where Raila served as Prime Minister under President Kibaki following the 2007 post-election violence. Under the new plan, Ruto could assume the Prime Ministerial role, allowing him to maintain executive influence, while Raila would serve as a unifying head of state. Clear role definitions for other leaders, such as Kalonzo, Mudavadi, and Wetang’ula, would help avert the internal rivalries that ultimately destabilised NARC. The coalition would thus combine executive continuity with broad-based representation.
Opposition Disunity The opposition’s current fragmentation could play directly into the hands of the proposed coalition. The potential entry of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i into the race, along with Gachagua’s mounting activities in Mount Kenya, could further splinter the anti-Ruto vote. The 2013 election serves as a historical parallel. Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Alliance capitalized on a divided opposition to win in the first round. A similar situation in 2027 would favour a unified Ruto-Raila front.
Grassroots Momentum and Incumbency Raila’s mass appeal in key regions such as Nyanza, Western, and major urban centres complements Ruto’s incumbency advantages, including control over state resources and project implementation. Their recent joint tours in ODM strongholds, such as Homa Bay, have showcased developmental gains and demonstrated the alliance’s reach. According to political analyst Javas Bigambo, Raila’s silence on his 2027 bid is a tactical advantage, enabling ODM to negotiate from a position of strength. The 2022 Kenya Kwanza strategy, which blended grassroots mobilization with state machinery, could be further amplified by this expanded coalition. How the Alliance Could Be Implemented
Institutionalizing the Coalition The UDA-ODM MoU serves as a legal and political foundation. Regular strategic meetings among Ruto, Raila, Kalonzo, Mudavadi, and Wetang’ula could help clarify policy priorities and coalition roles. Given that Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are already part of Ruto’s government, they could act as key facilitators in harmonizing regional and ethnic interests.
Constitutional Amendments The reintroduction of a Prime Ministerial post would require constitutional reforms, either through parliamentary initiative or a national referendum. Drawing lessons from the failed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), the coalition could repackage reforms as essential steps toward inclusive governance and national unity.
Messaging and Development Agenda Branding the alliance as a “unity government” committed to addressing economic recovery, youth unemployment, and justice could resonate with voters, especially Gen Z activists, who have been vocal on issues such as police brutality and corruption. Highlighting ongoing development projects in opposition strongholds could also boost the coalition’s legitimacy.
Weakening Opposition Strongholds Targeted campaigns and development-focused outreach in regions such as Mount Kenya could help undermine the influence of rival leaders like Gachagua and Karua. Despite the strategic logic, significant hurdles remain. Within ODM, key voices like Sifuna and Orengo argue that an alliance with Ruto could tarnish Raila’s reformist legacy. Their resistance reflects genuine concerns among the party’s rank and file, especially among Gen Z voters already sceptical of elite pacts. This sentiment was recently inflamed by a viral, AI-generated video falsely depicting Raila calling for protests, highlighting how misinformation could disrupt the alliance’s narrative.
Kenya’s past offers a mixture of caution and inspiration. The 2002 NARC coalition’s victory and subsequent collapse underline the need for detailed, enforceable agreements. The 2008 Grand Coalition stabilised the country but suffered from infighting and unclear power-sharing roles. Jubilee’s 2013 victory, achieved through strategic unity in the face of a splintered opposition, remains a textbook example of effective coalition politics. The proposed Ruto-Raila-Kalonzo alliance is not just a political arrangement but a strategic undertaking to stabilise Kenya’s political future. By consolidating regional strengths, formalizing power-sharing mechanisms, and capitalising on opposition disunity, the coalition could usher in a new era of governance. However, its success will depend on its ability to navigate internal rifts, win public trust, and deliver on key policy promises. As Kenya’s journey to 2027 begins, one thing is certain: this alliance, if well-executed, could reshape the nation’s destiny. If mishandled, it may reinforce the very divisions it seeks to resolve.
