Raila’s inner circle insists he still stands a viable chance of clinching the top seat. They argue that his candidacy would not only energise ODM’s base but also preserve the party’s political clout. Yet, some analysts detect a different trajectory, one in which Raila’s actions, whether deliberate or circumstantial, could tilt the scales in Ruto’s favour.
According to well-placed sources, Raila may ultimately yield to pressure and appear on the ballot, not with the primary aim of winning, but to safeguard ODM’s future. Paradoxically, this could end up splitting the opposition vote, thus smoothing Ruto’s path to re-election.
Several scenarios have emerged:
Scenario One: Raila runs, knowing he will likely finish second, forcing a run-off against Ruto. He then cites electoral irregularities and boycotts the repeat poll, a move reminiscent of his 2017 standoff with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, leaving Ruto to claim an uncontested victory.
Scenario Two: Raila finishes third in the first round but becomes a decisive kingmaker in the run-off. By endorsing Ruto against another challenger, he would effectively deliver the State House keys to his former rival.
Scenario Three: In the event Ruto wins outright but his victory is nullified by the Supreme Court, Raila could refuse to participate in the repeat election, thereby clearing the way for Ruto’s re-election.
Scenario Four: Raila opts out entirely, nominating a lesser-known ODM candidate with little chance of reaching the run-off. In this case, ODM could throw its weight behind Ruto in the decisive second round.
Scenario Five: Raila strikes a pre-election pact with Ruto, offering ODM’s running mate in exchange for a Prime Minister-designate role under a restructured executive.
Each of these possibilities, while speculative, reflects the intricate web of Kenyan politics where alliances shift, rivalries thaw, and strategy often overshadows ideology. For Ruto, any of these outcomes could prove politically priceless. For Raila, they might preserve ODM’s relevance, but at the cost of surrendering the presidency he has pursued for decades.
Whether by accident or design, the former Prime Minister’s decisions over the next two years could determine not just his own political legacy, but also the occupant of State House in 2027.
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