He has publicly declared that his name will appear on the 2027 presidential ballot, either as the consensus opposition flagbearer or as Wiper’s candidate. Yet beneath this bold assurance lies a web of competing pressures and political uncertainties.
One of Kalonzo’s greatest dilemmas is whether to maintain his long and often costly alliance with Raila Odinga, who has recently signalled a willingness to collaborate with President William Ruto, or to sever ties and chart an independent path. Having already sacrificed his ambitions in 2013, 2017, and 2022 in favour of Raila, Kalonzo feels betrayed by the growing calls for him to abandon opposition unity and instead join Ruto’s broad-based government, potentially as Deputy President.
Mount Kenya leaders have compounded his predicament by urging him to forgo the presidency and serve as Deputy to either Rigathi Gachagua or Fred Matiang’i. Kalonzo, however, is reluctant to play second fiddle to politicians he considers his juniors in both age and experience. Worse still, his allies fear that a possible reconciliation between Gachagua and retired President Uhuru Kenyatta could see Matiangi emerge as Mount Kenya’s preferred candidate, effectively locking Kalonzo out of national support and confining him to his Ukambani base.
At the same time, efforts to draw the Kamba community into the powerful Gikuyu, Embu, Meru Association (GEMA) bloc have met resistance, with some Mount Kenya powerbrokers dismissing it as a ploy by Kalonzo to gain their backing.
For a man who has long positioned himself as the perennial kingmaker, the stakes could not be higher. If Kalonzo insists on standing his ground, he risks political isolation. Yet if he yields to pressure, he may once again sacrifice his presidential dream. The coming months will reveal whether Kalonzo Musyoka finally emerges from the shadow of compromise or remains trapped in a cycle of political subservience.
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