The catalyst for this crisis was a heated joint meeting of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) last week, where Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga accused MPs of extortion. Raila proposed a controversial constitutional amendment to transfer National Government Constituency Development Fund (NG-CDF) oversight to county governments, a move that would curb senators’ influence over governors. In response, MPs have demanded that Ruto publicly identify and denounce those allegedly involved in extortion, a condition that suggests either genuine outrage or a tactical manoeuvre to deflect scrutiny.
The prospect of dissolution carries significant consequences. Should Ruto act, Parliament would face fresh elections within 90 days, while the President, Deputy President, governors, and county assembly members remain in office. This could disrupt Kenya’s electoral calendar, potentially delaying the next general elections to 2030. However, such a shift raises questions about alignment with the constitutional five-year election cycle, which anticipates polls in 2027. The lack of clarity on this point underscores the complexity of Ruto’s strategy.
For MPs, the stakes are personal. Historical data reveal that only 20% of Kenyan parliamentarians secure re-election, making the threat of a snap poll a potent tool to compel compliance. Ruto’s alliance with Raila, forged to bolster their 2027 election prospects, hinges on a united parliamentary front. Yet, dissent within UDA and ODM ranks reveals fractures that could undermine this coalition. Political analysts warn that dissolution might backfire if the opposition consolidates and fields unified candidates, potentially weakening Ruto’s grip on Parliament.
The gender rule stalemate is not merely a legislative failure but a test of Kenya’s democratic maturity. Ruto’s invocation of Article 261(7), previously cited by former Chief Justice David Maraga in 2020 when advising President Uhuru Kenyatta to dissolve Parliament, underscores the issue’s persistence. By threatening such a drastic measure, Ruto is playing a calculated game of political chess, balancing coercion with the risk of alienating allies.
As Kenya watches this drama unfold, the question remains: will Ruto pull the trigger, or is this merely a bluff to force MPs into line? The answer will shape not only the fate of the gender rule but also the trajectory of his presidency.
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