Factional Wars Threaten Matiang’i’s Presidential Ambitions

By TWV Political Desk

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i is likely to be the main casualty of the changing dynamics in the “united opposition” following the declaration by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua that he is in the race for State House in 2027.

Matiang’i, who resigned from his position at the World Bank to enter the presidential contest, made a triumphant return to the Gusii region in March. During the visit, he addressed roadside rallies, describing the tour as a listening exercise that would inform his final decision on whether to take on President William Ruto, with whom he had frosty relations when Ruto was deputy president.

“I thank you for giving me the green light to sit down and engage with other leaders. When the right time comes, I will come back here and tell you what’s next,” Matiang’i told ecstatic crowds at Nyansiongo Market. He later addressed a mammoth rally at Gusii Stadium, where he reiterated his ambitions. “The time will come, and I will sit down with you so that we can agree, as a people, on the way forward,” he said.

Despite enjoying the support of Kisii Governor Simba Arati, his Nyamira counterpart Amos Nyaribo, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko, Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo, former nominated Senator Gloria Orwoba, former West Mugirango MP Vincent Kemosi, a majority of MCAs, and endorsement by elders, the former CS has yet to firm up his bid or identify with a political party through which he will negotiate with colleagues in the Opposition.

In contrast, Gachagua has his Democracy for Citizens Party, expected to be a formidable force in the Mt Kenya region and a bargaining tool in negotiations to field a single candidate against Ruto, whom he has vowed to make a one-term president.

It is widely believed that Dr Matiang’i is the preferred candidate of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party. Long before Matiang’i expressed interest in the presidency, the party’s Secretary General, Jeremiah Kioni, described him as the best-suited candidate to replace Ruto.

“We are looking for a person that can unify the country, a name that more people can rally around. We are looking at a bully in the name of William – who is this person that can look him in the eye and tell him off?” he said on a local radio station in January.

“We are picking somebody from outside the mountain and from a smaller community, yet a name that is known. The reason we have the 2010 Constitution is that it allows us to pick a candidate from any corner of the country,” he added. This position did not sit well with Gachagua. At one point, he resisted Matiang’i’s participation in a joint opposition meeting, with sources indicating that Uhuru was forced to send party chairman Torome Saitoti instead of Kioni.

Gachagua has also openly urged Matiang’i to consolidate his support base before engaging in negotiations alongside former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Party), former Justice Minister Martha Karua (People’s Liberation Party), former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-Kenya), former Public Service CS Justin Muturi (Democratic Party), former Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, and Roots Party leader George Wajackoyah.

“Matiang’i appears qualified, active, and tough. He has what it takes to be president. But does he have support from home? If Kisii doesn’t rally behind him, where will his candidacy go?” Gachagua posed during an interview with a local station on 12 May.

“For him to be a serious contender, he must bring the whole Kisii vote to the table,” he added.
During his recent visit to the US, Gachagua held talks with Matiang’i to discuss the “liberation cause.”
“During my visit to the USA, I had a tête-à-tête with Dr Fred Matiang’i at Aberdeen, Maryland. We discussed several issues affecting our country, Kenya, and our liberation cause. Our focus remains strong, and our commitment to the people of Kenya is unwavering. God bless Kenya,” he posted on social media.

Gachagua’s declaration on 14 September that he will vie for the presidency has already caused divisions in the opposition, with Natembeya warning that it is likely to complicate the search for a single flagbearer.
“We must agree as the opposition, and no one should beat his chest claiming to be the flagbearer. I’m saying this because these are just cold facts,” he told a local TV station a day after the former DP’s declaration.

“For us to choose a flagbearer, we will start by checking the number of people you have brought to us and the resources you have – those will be the determinants,” he added. In raising his stakes, Gachagua is banking on Mt Kenya’s more than 3.5 million votes, believing that the fallout from his impeachment in October last year will solidify his support in the region.

While Uhuru, Karua, and Muturi also hail from the region, Gachagua believes he will either be the king or at least the kingmaker in the reshaped political environment, particularly given the legal hurdles he faces in being cleared by the IEBC unless his impeachment is overturned in court.

On the other hand, Kalonzo is assured of about 1.7 million votes in the Ukambani region and a further 600,000 from the diaspora in Kenya, a base he could use in negotiations. Gachagua, however, has challenged him to expand this to 4.5 million through fresh registration in order to strike a deal with Mt Kenya.

Wamalwa and Natembeya, for their part, will seek to wrestle Western Kenya’s more than 2.2 million votes from President Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, though either is more likely to settle for a running mate position.

The Gusii region had 960,394 registered voters in 2022, though significant numbers reside in other counties such as Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Kajiado, Narok, Machakos, Mombasa, and Nairobi.
While the numbers may not appear decisive, Kisii-based political activist Elias Okemwa, a staunch Matiang’i supporter, argues that he is best placed to be the opposition’s compromise candidate. He adds that Matiang’i’s record as a performer in various dockets under Uhuru’s regime gives him an advantage in appealing to many Kenyans dissatisfied with Ruto’s performance.

“As a region, we will support him to the last man, just as we did with Simeon Nyachae in 2002. We only hope other Kenyans will also vote for him if they want a government that will deliver,” he told The Weekly Vision.

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