It is Do or Die: Eyes on Thursday’s Mini-Polls as Parties Jostle for Dominance

By TWV Political Desk

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Opposition are facing an acid test on Thursday, 27 November, as voters in Baringo County, six constituencies and 18 wards go to the polls to elect their representatives after one of the most prolonged mini-polls in history.

The by-elections, which are being billed as a dry run for the 2027 General Election, are also the first to be presided over by the newly constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Its conduct will be under intense scrutiny, with any misadventure likely to spoil the political climate ahead of the next polls.

Apart from the Baringo senatorial seat, the by-elections will be held in Magarini, Banissa, Mbeere North, Ugunja, Kasipul and Malava constituencies following the death, appointment to Cabinet or nullification of the previous holders. Voters in Chewani in Tana River, Fafi in Garissa, Mumbuni North in Machakos, Lake Zone and Nanaam in Turkana; Angate Nyanyokie in Samburu; Tembelio in Uasin Gishu; Metkei in Elgeyo Marakwet; Chemungu Kapun’etuny in Nandi; Narok Town; Purko in Kajiado; Kisa East in Kakamega; Kabuchai Chwele in Bungoma; Nyamaiya, Nyansiongo and Ekerenyo in Nyamira; and Kariobangi North in Nairobi will also elect their ward representatives on the same day.

The focus is, however, likely to be in Mbeere North, where UDA is pitted in an intense battle with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who is leading the campaign for the United Opposition candidate, Newton Karish, of the Democratic Party. Despite threats of violence, Gachagua has revved up Karish’s campaign since he entered the fray on Saturday, 15 November, and has vowed to stay there until the results are announced, a move that has forced UDA back to the drawing board.

Instead of Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire leading the campaign for UDA candidate Leonard Wamuthende, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has taken charge to counter the Gachagua wave, even adopting his door-to-door campaign strategy.While Gachagua challenged President William Ruto to face him instead of leaving the battle to an unelected leader, Kindiki hit back, stating that he has more experience, having served as senator, Senate Deputy Speaker, Cabinet Secretary and now Deputy President.

He said Mbeere North deserves decisive leadership, a stable development agenda, and a representative who stands firmly with the people.However, Gachagua said the people of Mbeere North, whom he has been meeting during morning walks in streets and village paths, are clear and resolute about their priorities and know exactly what they want, and nothing will distract them from the future they are determined to shape.

“We have a date with destiny,” they told me today (Thursday, 20 November),” he posted on his X account.While the seat attracted nine candidates, only Wamuthende, Karish and Chama Cha Mashinani’s Duncan Mbui have been visible in the campaigns.The seat was left vacant after Mbui’s appointment to the Cabinet.

Another flashpoint is likely to be Kasipul, where two people have already been killed in violence pitting the main candidates: former MP Charles Ong’ondo Were’s son, Bryad Were of ODM, and Philip Aroko, an independent.On Thursday, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) fined them KSh 1 million each and warned that they could be disqualified if they do not stick to the campaign schedule it issued.

Sources told The Weekly Vision that the violence is linked to top Homa Bay County Government officials, who are determined to ensure ODM retains the seat. The seat attracted interest from 10 candidates. Malava constituency in Kakamega County is also of interest, as Kenya Kwanza Alliance, through UDA, battles to retain the seat, which was left vacant following the death of Malava MP Majundu Injendi in February.

Injendi was elected on Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s now defunct Amani National Congress ticket.UDA’s David Ndakwa is pitted against DAP-Kenya candidate Seth Panyako in a contest that could reshape western Kenya politics ahead of 2027.DCP’s Edgar Busiega stepped down in support of Panyako, but there are fears that the supremacy battle between DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya could derail the opposition’s bid to clinch the seat.

However, it is interesting that while Mudavadi was initially fronted as UDA’s chief campaigner, he has lately been replaced by Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa and Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet.In Magarini, ODM’s candidate Harrison Kombe will face off with DCP’s Stanley Kenga in what is likely to test the Orange party’s support in the Coast region following the death of its leader, Raila Odinga, last month.

In Baringo, UDA has fielded 31-year-old Kiprono Cheburet as its candidate, and he is likely to prevail after Ruto wooed former Senator Gideon Moi, the Kanu chairman, to pull out of the race.However, there are reports that voters may vote for any of the other five candidates as a protest against the performance of Ruto’s administration and Gideon’s withdrawal.

Amnesty International Kenya has warned that by-elections have all the signs of a mini General Election, while urging authorities to salvage their image by ensuring they are free, fair and peaceful, noting recent events in Tanzania and Uganda, which it said have provided clear evidence on how not to prepare for elections.“These by-elections may be the most significant stress test of our electoral ecosystem before 2027. By the end of November, Kenyans will be able to measure voter confidence in the process, the independence and professionalism of the electoral commission and police, the capacity of political parties to deploy agents, and the effectiveness of civic actors in observing and safeguarding electoral integrity.”

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