By The Weekly Vision Editorial Desk
In the sweltering heat of Homa Bay’s polling stations, the echoes of “Baba!” chants have faded to a whisper, yet the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) still emerged from last week’s by-elections with a defiant roar. Raila Odinga, the indomitable titan of Kenyan opposition politics, died on 15 October in India at the age of 80 after succumbing to cardiac arrest during a morning walk.
His death, following decades spent personifying resistance against authoritarianism, has left a void that threatens to swallow whole the party he painstakingly built. But as results from the 27 November polls trickled in, ODM’s sweep in many of its strongholds, especially Nyanza, offered a fleeting reprieve, or perhaps a false dawn, for a movement grappling with grief, betrayal, and the inexorable march towards 2027.
The by-elections, scattered across 24 electoral wards and constituencies, served as the first true litmus test of ODM’s resilience without its spiritual leader. In Kasipul Constituency, Homa Bay, a Luo heartland once synonymous with Raila’s unchallenged sway, ODM’s youthful standard-bearer, Boyd Were, clinched a resounding victory with 16,819 votes, trouncing his nearest rival, independent candidate Philip Aroko.
At just 28, Were, a self-styled Gen Z firebrand, embodies the generational pivot ODM so desperately needs. “This isn’t just a win for me,” he declared amid jubilant crowds in Kosele, “it’s a testament to Baba’s vision of inclusive, accountable leadership.” Yet whispers among party elders suggest the triumph was hard-fought, with turnout dipping perilously low, a harbinger of the voter apathy that plagued Raila’s final campaigns.
Similar scenes unfolded in Ugunja and Magarini on the Coast, where ODM candidates romped home, bolstering the party’s parliamentary tally and silencing, if only temporarily, the doomsayers.
Nationally, the alliance between ODM and President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) proved a double-edged sword. The coalition swept most contests, reshaping Kenya’s fractious political landscape. Critics, however, decry it as a Faustian bargain: Raila’s posthumous endorsement of the “broad-based government”, forged in March 2025, has blurred ODM’s oppositional edge, turning erstwhile revolutionaries into reluctant bedfellows of the ruling elite.
Raila’s death has amplified the fault lines within ODM, where the late leader’s pragmatic handshake with Ruto is now viewed less as statesmanship and more as a lingering curse. In Siaya, where Raila was laid to rest beside his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, local leaders pledged loyalty to the alliance at a sombre church service, vowing not to “abandon Ruto” in his hour of need.
Such declarations, once unthinkable, underscore a seismic shift: ODM’s cabinet positions, including CS Opiyo Wandayi’s plum posting, have secured loyalty but eroded moral authority. For many in Nyanza, the by-election wins feel hollow. “Raila stood for justice, not jobs at any cost,” lamented a disillusioned voter in Kisumu, echoing sentiments rooted in the pre-mortem fractures that saw defections and nomination disputes rattle the party.
The alliance’s success in Malava Constituency, where DAP-K’s Seth Panyako cried foul over alleged bribery, highlights the tactical nous of Ruto’s outreach, but raises troubling questions about the cost to ODM’s soul.
With Raila gone, ODM’s internal machinery, already sputtering from opaque primaries in Homa Bay and Migori, now teeters on the brink of implosion. Party elders, led by Dr Oburu Odinga, convened urgently a few days ago to mull rising factional tensions, proposing reforms to stave off a full-blown schism.
Younger turks such as Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are jostling for primacy, demanding a break from “coalition fatigue” and a return to assertive, youth-centric politics. In Kasipul, Were’s ascent signals hope: a Gen Z victor untainted by the old guard’s patronage games. Yet succession remains ODM’s haunted question. Who now carries forward Baba’s vision?
The by-elections exposed a deeper malaise. Economic pressures in Nyanza, where young people crave deliverables over symbolism, have bred a worrying apathy. Historical data warns that slumps in Luo turnout often spell national doom for ODM; last week’s modest participation in Siaya and Kisumu, despite the victories, bodes ill for 2027.
