All Eyes on President Ruto as He Navigates Post-Raila Era

By The Weekly Vision Editorial Team

All eyes are on President William Ruto as he takes the next steps to reposition his government in the wake of the sudden death of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga. Mr Odinga was a co-partner in the broad-based government formed to stabilise the Ruto administration following the June 2024 Gen Z revolt. In March, the two leaders signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) outlining a ten-point agenda whose implementation, Mr Odinga maintained, would determine the future of their partnership.

During Mr Odinga’s funeral service, President Ruto pledged to ensure that ODM remained stable in honour of his late partner and that the party would either form the next government or be part of it. However, he now faces a dilemma following a sharp ideological split within the Orange party. The rift pits diehards, including Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, and Opiyo Wandayi, and MPs Otiende Amollo, Rosa Buyu, and Peter Kaluma, against the younger faction led by Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and MPs Babu Owino and Caleb Amisi.

While the hardliners want to maintain the pact with President Ruto beyond 2027, the younger members, who are also positioning themselves to inherit Mr Odinga’s political mantle, want out. During a meeting on Friday, 24 October, in Bondo, which brought together ODM delegates from Luo Nyanza, the diehards declared that it was Raila’s wish for the party to continue working with President Ruto, even as it seeks to strengthen itself in its twentieth anniversary year.

Kisumu West MP Rosa Buyu said: “We always told Baba that if he asked us to go left, we shall. If he said right, we would go right.” On his part, Raila Odinga’s elder brother and acting party leader, Oburu Odinga, remarked: “If Baba asked us to go right, we went right. If he asked us to go left, we went left. That is loyalty. The way to prove that now is by staying united, not just in Nyanza but across Kenya. This is not about uniting the Luo; it is about uniting Kenya.” The delegates also resolved to push for Oburu to be confirmed as Raila’s successor in the party.

Notably, the meeting, touted as a Nyanza delegates’ caucus, did not include representatives from the Gusii and Kuria communities. The Gusii region has particularly drifted away from ODM even before Raila’s death, following the presidential ambitions of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i, who is backed by former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party.

While Nyamira Governor Amos Nyaribo, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, several MPs, and former Nominated Senator Gloria Orwoba have rallied behind Dr Matiang’i, Kisii Governor Simba Arati has been sending mixed signals. During the Mashujaa Day celebrations, Mr Arati, one of ODM’s three deputy leaders, extended an olive branch to President Ruto, urging him to rejoin ODM to fulfil Raila’s dream that the party would one day produce a president.

“The President yesterday said he is going to ensure that ODM remains the party it is. I want to urge him today, Mheshimiwa Ruto, you were a founding member of ODM. How I wish you would come back to your former party. If you came back to ODM, we would have you as our flag bearer. If you came back, we would fulfil the promise Baba had a vision for,” he said a day after Raila Odinga’s burial.

“We commit to carrying Baba’s dream forward. Raila was our north, our compass in times of challenge; his vision will forever be the foundation upon which we build Kenya’s future. Let’s honour his memory by doing the things he championed for.”

Noticeably, National Treasurer Timothy Bosire, who hails from Nyamira, has maintained a studied silence since Raila led ODM into government. The ODM Central Management Committee is scheduled to meet on Monday, 27 October, to review its partnership with President Ruto, among other matters.

“We will have a special Central Committee meeting chaired by Oburu Odinga on Monday with three main agendas: upcoming by-elections, celebrating ODM at 20, where we will also celebrate the 80 years we enjoyed on earth with our late party leader Raila Odinga, and reviewing the ten-point agenda signed between UDA and ODM,” Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, who also serves as ODM’s deputy party leader, told a local TV station on Thursday, 23 October.

Mr Nassir expressed hope that the party would remain united in the post-Raila era and emerge stronger from the enormous loss. “Our opponents want to see us fall, but we will be meeting to forge the way forward and iron out the ideological differences that seem to be emerging,” he said.

Sources indicate that the decision to hold Monday’s meeting comes as President Ruto prepares to make Cabinet changes to reposition his administration in the aftermath of Raila’s death. He is also expected to bring KANU into the broad-based government following his deal with its chairman, former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi.

According to insiders, President Ruto is likely to expand the Cabinet by creating two positions of Deputy Prime Cabinet Secretary, one for Gideon Moi and another for ODM. KANU will also get an additional Cabinet slot and several state appointments for its senior leaders.

In August, President Ruto and Mr Odinga appointed a five-member committee led by former Nominated Senator Agnes Zani to oversee the implementation of the ten-point agenda agreed between ODM and UDA. However, progress on the committee’s work is yet to be made public.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, also an ODM deputy party leader, has urged President Ruto to expedite implementation. “Our wish as a party, and Raila kept emphasising this before his death, is that the ideas in the ten-point agenda he signed be implemented. For instance, stopping abductions was very important to him, as was compensating families whose members died or were injured during the 2024 anti-government protests,” he said during a TV interview.

The issue of compensating victims of the protests, however, suffered a setback after the High Court halted the work of the team overseeing the process, prompting the resignation of Law Society of Kenya President Faith Odhiambo, who had been deputising Ruto’s Senior Adviser on Constitutional Affairs and Human Rights, Prof Makau Mutua.

The shooting deaths of at least four mourners following Raila Odinga’s passing at Kasarani are also expected to spark fresh tensions between President Ruto and the ODM faction led by Edwin Sifuna.
On Friday, Mr Sifuna met with the families of the four victims and offered them financial support, pledging to ensure justice is served.

“We invited the families of the late Vincent Otieno Ogutu, Evan Onyango Kiche, Josfae Jida Burka and Josephine Akeng’o to Chungwa House today. They are among those killed while mourning Baba at Kasarani and Nyayo Stadium. We extended our condolences and support on behalf of the entire ODM family, especially in the search for justice for these needless deaths,” he wrote on his verified X account.

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