With the passing of ODM party leader Raila Odinga, the party’s Eastlands heavyweights, Babu Owino and George Aladwa, are poised for a fierce showdown in the 2027 gubernatorial primaries. The contest sets the stage for a major City Hall battle against incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja of UDA, in a crowded field that also includes former CS Moses Kuria with his anti-corruption pledge and former PS Irungu Nyakera’s reformist bid. Meanwhile, Gen Z voters and rising grassroots discontent threaten to upend Nairobi’s fractured political landscape
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By The Weekly Vision Political Desk
Nairobi is set to witness one of the fiercest contests for the governor’s seat ahead of the 2027 General Election, pitting the incumbent Johnson Sakaja of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) against either Makadara MP George Aladwa or Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who are both vying for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) ticket.
Also in the race is former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, who has pledged to “sanitise” the city following President William Ruto’s concerns on 13th October about its filthy state. Dear President William Ruto. Today, you spoke to my heart. As Prime Minister Baba Raila Amolo Odinga has told me countless times, Nairobi cannot continue to be the city of filth, garbage, and incompetence. I have heard your cry. That is why I will offer myself to be the Governor of the great County of Nairobi in 2027. I will fix Nairobi,” Kuria posted on his X account.
Others eyeing the seat include Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Irungu Nyakera, a former Principal Secretary in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration, who was dismissed as KICC boss by President Ruto for his anti-government stance, and political analyst Tony Gachoka.
The initial dogfight is expected within ODM, where Aladwa and Owino will face off for the party’s ticket. Both are grassroots mobilisers who enjoy strong support in their respective Eastlands strongholds, a region that holds a significant portion of Nairobi’s voting population. The importance of Eastlands in Nairobi politics was evident in the 2017 election, when matatu owner and bar operator Mike Sonko defeated the incumbent Evans Kidero, garnering 785,921 votes against Kidero’s 629,224, to secure the City Hall seat.
In the 2013 election, Kidero had narrowly defeated Ferdinand Waititu, polling 692,483 votes to Waititu’s 617,839. Although Waititu had roots in Eastlands, having served as MP for the then Embakasi Constituency, analysts attribute his loss to the area’s demographic mix, a strong presence of Luo, Kamba, Luhya, and Kisii residents who have traditionally supported ODM and its former leader, the late Raila Odinga, alongside his running mate, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Even Sakaja’s 2022 victory over Jubilee Party’s Polycarp Igathe is partly credited to ODM supporters who were disillusioned by the party’s decision to cede the seat to Uhuru Kenyatta’s camp. It was for this reason that Sakaja actively courted Raila, who not only rallied ODM Members of the County Assembly to support his administration, saving him from near-impeachment, but also publicly endorsed him. “I want Nairobi to remain united and strong. My son here will take charge,” Raila said during a prayer meeting at the Bomas of Kenya, at a time he was seeking to become Chairperson of the African Union Commission.
At that same event, both Aladwa and ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga voiced support for Sakaja, even urging him to join ODM. “While you are away, Baba, we want our great Governor Sakaja to take charge and also join ODM so that we can work together,” Aladwa said. However, Raila’s death has dramatically reshaped the city’s political landscape. Aladwa has now declared that he is firmly in the race to replace Sakaja.
During a meeting chaired by Deputy Party Leader and Kisii Governor Simba Arati on Friday, 31st October, ODM leaders insisted that anyone seeking their support must be a party member. “I want to indicate that all elective seats, especially in Nairobi, if you want to be governor, you must be in ODM. If you want to be senator of Nairobi, you must remain in ODM,” Arati declared.
On his part, Aladwa reaffirmed his bid, saying, “If you want any seat in Nairobi, you must be an ODM member. Let no one think that ODM members will support them in 2027 when they are still in other parties. I have declared that I will run for the Nairobi governor’s seat in 2027. We will reclaim the seat, and let us meet at the ballot with those who are also interested.”
Interestingly, the meeting came a day after ODM interim chairman Dr Oburu Oginga met officially with Babu Owino to assure him that the party’s nominations would be free and fair, and to discourage him from running as an independent candidate.
Owino had earlier expressed doubts about receiving a fair chance for the ODM ticket, citing Raila’s previous support for Sakaja and his move to persuade Aladwa not to contest the Vihiga gubernatorial seat, instead asking him to remain in Nairobi as ODM branch chairman.
In contrast, Raila did not stop Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi, who was sidelined in 2017 in favour of Polycarp Igathe, from pursuing the Bungoma governor’s seat. In a post on his X account, Dr Oburu stated that his meeting with Owino focused on strengthening unity and inclusivity within ODM: “Hon Babu Owino symbolises the vibrant energy and determination of our youth. He has a promising future, and we are together,” he said.
Earlier, during an interview on Ramogi FM, Dr Oburu had said, “I do not see anything wrong with Babu Owino, although I hear there are some issues that may be troubling him. I do not think there can be any reason to deny him the ticket if he wins the nominations. If he wins, he will get it. So, let him not run away.”
Similarly, Dr Oburu defended ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, who, before changing his stance and backing the coalition between ODM and UDA, had faced threats of expulsion from party hardliners. “As a young man, Sifuna can at times become restless and go a little overboard, but he is with us and will stay with us. There is nothing he has done to warrant his removal from the party,” Dr Oburu assured.
He noted that Sifuna was the one who read the Central Management Committee resolution confirming the party’s decision to remain part of the broad-based government, in which five former ODM officials currently serve in Cabinet and other senior positions.
Sifuna, however, continues to send mixed signals, recently stating that the coalition agreement does not require ODM to remain in government indefinitely. “It has become fashionable for people to throw around ‘we are in a broad-based government’ in every discussion. The late Baba Raila told the country I am the one who wrote that document. Don’t argue with me about its contents,” Sifuna said in the Senate on Thursday, 30th October.
It remains to be seen how the schisms within the Orange party will play out ahead of the Nairobi primaries. While Aladwa will rely on ODM’s organisational machinery and his entrenched grassroots base, both Owino and Sifuna are expected to attract new support, particularly from Generation Z voters, many of whom will be voting for the first time in 2027.
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