The National Assembly’s overwhelming vote to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has now shifted the matter to the Senate, where his political future hangs in the balance. This trial could potentially end his career and disqualify him from holding any public office under Kenya’s leadership and integrity laws.
As the Senate prepares to deliberate, the voting trends in the National Assembly hint that Gachagua’s fate may already be sealed. Many analysts predict that most senators will likely support the MPs’ decision to impeach him.
However, there seems to be a strong push from the Mount Kenya region to protect Mr Gachagua, as reflected in a section of MPs in the National Assembly. Should this sentiment extend to the Senate, it is anticipated that senators from his home region will rally behind him. Notably, MPs from Mount Kenya and the three Ukambani counties (Kitui, Machakos, and Makueni) showed significant support for the Deputy President.
Senators expected to vote in favour of Gachagua include Wahome Wamatinga (Nyeri), John Methu (Nyandarua), Joe Nyutu (Murang’a), Karungo Thangwa (Kiambu), and John Kinyua (Laikipia). In addition, Coastal Senator Joseph Gichuku is likely to oppose impeachment, as are the Ukambani senators—Agnes Kavindu (Machakos), Dan Maanzo (Makueni), and Enoch Wambua (Kitui)—who are aligned with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Senator Samson Cherargei from the Rift Valley, who has spoken out against the impeachment, is expected to abstain or vote against the motion. Similarly, Senator Kanar Seki from Kajiado, a vocal supporter of Gachagua, is likely to vote in his favour.
Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, who has consistently opposed the impeachment, may either abstain or vote against it, while Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, who initially dismissed the motion, is now reportedly leaning toward supporting the impeachment.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who had been against the motion, may change his stance due to his role as ODM secretary general and cast a vote in favour. Among the nominated senators, those expected to oppose impeachment include Shakilla Abdalla, Karen Nyamu, and George Mbugua, who have shown loyalty to the Deputy President.
Projections suggest that 51 senators will vote in favour of impeachment, while 16 will vote against. To affirm the National Assembly’s decision, a two-thirds majority, or 44 senators, will be required.
