By TWV Political Desk
By-elections are typically subdued political affairs, yet the forthcoming Mbeere North parliamentary by-election has morphed into a high-stakes duel, pitting President William Ruto against his estranged deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, now firmly aligned with the opposition.
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The seat fell vacant after MP Geoffrey Kariuki Kiringa Ruku was appointed to the Cabinet. What began as a routine contest has evolved into a three-horse race: Newton Kariuki Ndwiga (popularly known as Newton Karish), a three-term MCA for Muminji Ward and celebrated Benga musician, vying on a Democratic Party (DP) ticket; Duncan Ireri Mbui (“Kivui Kivui”), a second-term MCA for Evurore Ward, running on a Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) ticket; and Leonard Muriuki Muthende, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate.
Former MP and city advocate Charles Muriuki Njagagua, one of eight initial aspirants for the UDA ticket, now heads Muthende’s campaign secretariat, backed by the other aspirants who stepped aside. Pulling strings in the background are CS Ruku (Public Service) and Deputy President Prof. Kithure Kindiki.
Notably, Njagagua narrowly lost the 2022 election to Ruku by just 200 votes, a slim margin that underlines his influence.
Mbeere North politics are deeply steeped in clanism. The constituency’s three wards, Evurore, Muminji, and Nthawa, are primarily shaped by two dominant clans: Ndamata and Mururi, alongside smaller voting blocs of Kambas, Embus, and Kikuyus.
Newton Karish belongs to the Ndamata clan, the largest in the constituency, which has historically produced most MPs. Whether this trend continues will be closely watched. Muthende and Mbui both hail from the Mururi clan, the second largest. Although Mururi elders have endorsed UDA’s Muthende, the risk of a split vote between him and Mbui looms large.
It is worth noting that since independence, the Ndamata clan consistently produced MPs for Mbeere North, until the trend was disrupted in 2007, when Lenny Kivuti of the Mururi clan captured the seat by defeating the then-incumbent, J.B. Muturi of the Ndamata clan.
Mbui, alias Kivui Kivui, is a skilled grassroots mobiliser, enjoying the support of youthful Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji of Rigathi’s Democratic Congress Party (DCP). Former Cabinet Minister and CCK leader Moses Kuria has also pledged door-to-door mobilisation.
Karish, meanwhile, commands the backing of political heavyweights Lenny Kivuti, billionaire DEP party leader and former MP/Senator, and J.B. Muturi of the DP party. Both were once MPs when the area was known as Siakago.
The DEP party’s strong showing in the 2022 elections, winning two out of three MCA seats in Mbeere North, underscores its entrenched grassroots influence. For Kivuti, this by-election is also a strategic investment as he makes a third attempt at the Embu gubernatorial seat.
With nearly 65% of Mbeere residents living below the poverty line, the government is leveraging development pledges and financial inducements to court voters. From Last-Mile electricity connections to long-overdue road tarmacking, President Ruto’s administration has unleashed a flurry of projects. Insiders describe the campaign as fuelled by a “bottomless financial purse.”
Critics, however, dismiss this as outright voter bribery. “Let the government bring all the money they want,” Lenny Kivuti told The Weekly Vision. “Our people need it. But we [Mbeere people] will take the money, and still vote for the candidate of our choice.”
Yet money alone may not decide the outcome. Personality, local ties, and charisma remain decisive. Newton Karish, a renowned orator, poet, and musician, enjoys an organic connection with voters. His emphatic MCA victories underline his mass appeal. “I’ve known Newton Karish for years,” Kivuti remarked. “He is a man of the people, the leader Mbeere North deserves.” With financial muscle from Gachagua, Kivuti, and Muturi, Karish may prove to be the ultimate wild card.
This by-election is more than a contest for one seat; it is a referendum on alliances, clan loyalties, and the shifting sands of Mt Kenya politics. For Ruto and Rigathi, the stakes could not be higher. Victory here will signal whose political machinery has the greater resilience ahead of 2027. Efforts to obtain the UDA party’s perspective were unsuccessful, as CS Ruku did not respond to calls or WhatsApp messages.
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