Analysts say former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s decision to withdraw Jubilee from the Mbeere North by-election in favour of Newton Karish, of former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party, was a strategic move. It aimed to prevent Jubilee from acting as a spoiler in the mini-poll while simultaneously weakening Rigathi Gachagua’s influence in Mt Kenya East
To unlock the full article:
Choose one of the options below:
- Ksh 10 – This article only
- Ksh 300 – Monthly subscription
- Ksh 2340 – Yearly subscription (10% off)
By The Weekly Vision Political Desk
The battle between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for control of the vote-rich Mt Kenya region is set to shape the search for a single presidential candidate by the united opposition, and ultimately, the contest to unseat President William Ruto in 2027.
Uhuru, who is backing Dr Fred Matiang’i, a key member of his former administration who served as Interior Cabinet Secretary and chairperson of the National Development Implementation and Communication Cabinet Committee, has hinted that his Jubilee Party might go it alone, though he has not ruled out working with like-minded parties.
Analysts say his decision to withdraw Jubilee from the Mbeere North by-election in favour of Newton Karish of former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party was a strategic move. It was designed to ensure Jubilee did not act as a spoiler in the mini-poll while also undermining Gachagua’s influence in Mt Kenya East.
The move by Jubilee saw Jacob Ireri Mbao, who had sought the party’s ticket, shift allegiance to President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has already declared his presidential ambitions, is relying on the courts to overturn his impeachment of last October in order to remain eligible to run. However, the case is expected to drag on well into 2027 owing to pending appeals in both the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court. These appeals challenge the jurisdiction and procedure used by Deputy Chief Justice Philomena Mwilu in empanelling a three-judge bench comprising Justices Eric Ogola, Anthony Mrima and Freda Mugambi to hear the 40 petitions contesting his removal
The by-election has since become a three-horse race featuring Karish (Democratic Party), Leo Muriuki Muthende (UDA), and Duncan Mbui (Chama Cha Kazi), the latter associated with former CS Moses Kuria.
Mbui had earlier sought to vie on the ticket of Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) but defected after the party withdrew from the race following protests from Muturi.
Jubilee Deputy Organising Secretary Pauline Njoroge, a close ally of Uhuru, confirmed the strategic thinking behind the decision not to field a candidate.
“This is a reminder that leadership guided by foresight always sees beyond the immediate horizon. President Kenyatta continues to demonstrate statesmanship and long-term vision, one that transcends short-term politics and focuses on the broader future of our country. His support for unity within the opposition is not just tactical but strategic, rooted in the understanding that our collective strength lies in solidarity,” she said.
She added that party officials and members, including presidential hopeful Dr Matiang’i, are fully aligned with this vision, ensuring that the opposition speaks with one coherent voice as it moves towards 2027.
Gachagua, on the other hand, has been boasting that he has consolidated support in the populous region and can deliver seven million votes to the opposition.
He has challenged his colleagues, including Dr Matiang’i and Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka, to first consolidate their own regional support bases and mobilise voter registration before seeking backing from Mt Kenya.
However, Gachagua’s efforts to win the endorsement of Uhuru, still widely regarded as the Mt Kenya kingpin despite the sympathy Gachagua gained after his unceremonious exit from the second-highest office, have failed. Jubilee has since confirmed Dr Matiang’i as its presidential candidate following its recent National Delegates Conference (NDC).
The former DP, who has also declared his presidential ambitions, is banking on the courts to overturn his impeachment last October to make him eligible to run. However, the case is expected to drag on well into 2027 due to pending appeals in both the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court. These appeals challenge the jurisdiction and procedure used by Deputy Chief Justice Philomena Mwilu in empanelling a three-judge bench comprising Justices Eric Ogola, Anthony Mrima, and Freda Mugambi to hear the 40 petitions contesting his removal.
On Wednesday, 8 October, the court postponed the case to 16 December after Gachagua’s lawyer, Ndegwa Njiru, argued that the outcome of the appeals would significantly affect the ongoing proceedings.
“In light of the pending matters before the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, we hereby vacate the earlier dates that had been fixed for submissions,” ruled Lady Justice Mugambi.
Political analysts say that if the Mt Kenya region fails to produce a formidable presidential candidate, both Uhuru and Gachagua risk losing influence, as neither may be able to rally the region’s voters behind their preferred choices.
In 2022, Gachagua successfully rode on anti-Uhuru sentiment and propaganda against Azimio’s Raila Odinga to help deliver 3.3 million votes to Ruto. However, it remains to be seen whether he or the former president can replicate that performance in the next State House race.
“It is unfortunate for both men. They assume they control the people, but the reality may be different,” history professor Macharia Munene of the United States International University–Africa (USIU–A) told The Weekly Vision by phone.
Others argue that Ruto’s critics may be mistaken in assuming that his current unpopularity in the region, and indeed in other parts of the country, will persist until the next election. They caution that the president remains a self-made politician with the ability to turn the tide against his opponents, aided by incumbency, vast political networks, access to intelligence, resources, and his renowned oratory skills.
However, Mt Kenya could still produce a viable presidential contender if the united opposition settles on People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua as its flagbearer.
Among those backing her is Prof Peter Kagwanja, Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute, who cites her long record as a democracy crusader, Cabinet minister under former president Mwai Kibaki, and former presidential running mate under Raila Odinga as giving her strong credentials for the top job.
Writing in a local weekly recently, Prof Kagwanja observed that Karua has aligned herself with Gen Z, whom she has publicly defended in the media and in court during protests against the high cost of living, unemployment, and poor governance. During these demonstrations, dozens were shot dead by police, while others were forcibly disappeared, with some later found dead.
[/full]
