Raila Faces Political Storm as Ugunja By-Election Tests ODM Dominance

The by-election follows former Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi’s appointment as Energy Cabinet Secretary, which required him to vacate his parliamentary seat. Although the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) plans to field a candidate, Odinga’s greatest threat may come from within.

Discontented ODM supporters, frustrated by internal party dynamics, could rebel against the official candidate, potentially paving the way for an upset. The influence of UDM leader and Ugenya MP David Ochieng, from the neighbouring constituency, once part of greater Ugenya, further complicates the contest.

The main contenders are Moses Omondi, backed by Wandayi, Frederick Dor, a businessman and previous runner-up, and Joseph Alur, who previously supported Wandayi and whose supporters claim he has an outstanding pact with Wandayi.

With political tensions escalating and alliances shifting daily, the Ugunja by-election transcends local politics. It may well determine whether Odinga’s grip on Luo Nyanza’s political landscape remains unshakable, or whether the foundations of his influence are beginning to fracture.