Speaking during a Parliamentary Group meeting in Nairobi, Raila dismissed claims that ODM had already resolved not to field a candidate. ‘We have not passed any resolutions as a party on how we are going into the 2027 election. Who told you ODM will not have a candidate?’ he asked
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By TWV Political Editor
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga has hinted that his party could field a presidential candidate in 2027, a move that analysts warn may significantly disrupt President William Ruto’s re-election prospects by reshaping voter alignments and intensifying competition in key battleground regions.
Speaking during a Parliamentary Group meeting in Nairobi, Raila dismissed claims that ODM had already resolved not to present a candidate. “We have not passed any resolutions as a party to say how we are going into the 2027 election. Who told you ODM will not have a candidate?” he posed.
Raila clarified that ODM’s cooperation with Ruto’s broad-based government only runs until 2027, reaffirming the party’s independence beyond the current arrangement.
Political commentators argue that Raila’s potential candidacy would significantly alter the 2027 race. Mount Kenya is expected to remain Ruto’s stronghold, but Nyanza would back Raila, leaving Western, Coast, and North Eastern as fiercely contested battlegrounds.
Prof Kaburu Kanoti of Kenyatta University suggests that Raila’s move is less about winning the presidency and more about securing legislative influence. *“Political parties exist to form government. Even without executive power, Raila can increase his bargaining strength through Parliament,”* he said.
Analyst Martin Andati concurs, noting that Raila’s presence on the ballot would shrink Ruto’s base and make his re-election path far more precarious.
Raila’s position appears at odds with his earlier suggestion that ODM could back Ruto’s re-election. Since the Gen Z protests, Raila has played a stabilising role in the administration, helping to defuse unrest and earning the trust of Ruto, who has rewarded his allies with government appointments.
Defending this cooperation, Raila told MPs that he acted to save the country from the brink of collapse, warning that military intervention was a real risk. Using a parable, he said: “When a homestead is on fire, does Baba add fuel or fetch water? I chose to fetch water.”
Raila also revisited the failed Adani deal to expand Jomo Kenyatta International Airport under a Public-Private Partnership. He criticised Treasury officials for “doctoring” the concept, arguing that similar arrangements have since been adopted by Rwanda, positioning Kigali to become the region’s aviation hub.
By hinting at a presidential run, Raila is reminding both allies and rivals that ODM remains a force to reckon with. Whether he ultimately contests or not, the strategy could boost the party’s parliamentary numbers and bargaining power in a post-election government.
For President Ruto, Raila’s latest signal is an unwelcome complication. With less than two years to the election, the battle lines for 2027 are already beginning to take shape.
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