In a congratulatory message to candidates who won Tuesday’s by-elections on tickets of parties affiliated with the broad-based government, President William Ruto said: “Congratulations David Ndakwa (Malava), Leonard Wamuthende (Mbeere North), Ahmed Hassan (Banisa), Vincent Chemitei (Baringo), Moses Omondi (Ugunja), Harrison Kombe (Magarini), and Boyd Were (Kasipul) for your deserved wins! Your victory is a powerful reminder to us that we are bigger and better as a country when we are united.”
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By The Weekly Vision Political Desk
As the dust settles on the hotly contested by-elections held in various parts of the country last Thursday, politicians allied to the country’s main political formations, the broad-based government and the United Opposition, will be going back to the drawing board to re-strategise ahead of the 2027 general election.
The fiercely contested by-elections also tested the newly constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s (IEBC) ability to conduct a credible, free, and fair election ahead of the 2027 plebiscite.
While the ruling Kenya Kwanza government was quick to claim a resounding victory, showcasing the wins secured by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and its partner in the broad-based arrangement, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), parties under the United Opposition protested what they termed widespread rigging, voter bribery, and state brutality targeting their candidates and supporters.
President William Ruto, in his congratulatory message to victorious candidates who contested the mini-polls on the tickets of political parties affiliated with the broad-based government, wrote: “Congratulations David Ndakwa (Malava), Leonard Wamuthende (Mbeere North), Ahmed Hassan (Banisa), Vincent Chemitei (Baringo), Moses Omondi (Ugunja), Harrison Kombe (Magarini), and Boyd Were (Kasipul) for your deserved win! “Your victory is a powerful reminder to us that we are bigger and better as a country when we are united,” he added.
While the mini-polls provided a dress rehearsal for the 2027 general election, now less than two years away, pitting parties allied to the broad-based government against those under the United Opposition, they also became a battleground for political supremacy contests in various regions across the country.
The Mbeere North by-election, pitting UDA’s Leo Wamuthende against DP’s Newton Kariuki (Karish), was billed as a political supremacy contest in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, pitting former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua against his successor, Kindiki Kithure.
For weeks preceding the Thursday poll, the two political adversaries camped in the constituency, conducting door-to-door campaigns to sell their preferred candidates.
A victory for Karish would have confirmed Gachagua’s growing stature as the region’s political kingpin and seriously dented DP Kindiki’s standing as President Ruto’s second-in-command going into the 2027 presidential contest.
Amid allegations of massive voter bribery, Kindiki’s candidate, Wamuthende, narrowly triumphed, garnering 15,802 votes against Karish’s 15,308, asserting the DP’s stature as a formidable player in regional politics and, to an extent, puncturing Gachagua’s hitherto perceived invincibility.
Another battleground emerged in Western Kenya, where Kenya Kwanza’s point men in the region, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, came up against a formidable United Opposition brigade comprising Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa, and Kakamega Senator Dr Boni Khalwale. They backed DAP-K candidate Seth Panyako for the Malava parliamentary seat and independent candidate Erick Wekesa for the Chwele–Kabuchai civic seat in Bungoma County.
While Mudavadi’s candidate, Ndakwa, narrowly clinched the Malava parliamentary seat, garnering 21,564 votes against Panyako’s 20,210 in a poll marred by widespread violence and allegations of bribery, the results in the Chwele–Kabuchai civic by-election, where Wekesa whitewashed his main opponent, Ford Kenya’s Vincent Maunda, dealt Wetang’ula a mortal blow. The loss raised serious questions about his supremacy in the Bungoma–Trans Nzoia region in the face of Natembeya’s onslaught.
Welcoming the Malava results, Mudavadi stated: “Your victory reflects the growing confidence the people of Western continue to place in the Kenya Kwanza administration led by H.E. President William Ruto and offers an early glimpse into the political mood ahead of the 2027 elections.” “Your dedication, energy, and commitment were instrumental in driving this journey forward,” he added.
But in a move that could seriously puncture the Luhya unity exemplified in the last general election, when Mudavadi teamed up with Wetang’ula to back Ruto, the former’s communication team appeared to revel in the Speaker’s defeat in his Chwele–Kabuchai backyard.
In a write-up circulated to various media outlets, Mudavadi’s media team declared: “Western Kenya’s political landscape was shaken on Thursday night after UDA’s David Ndakwa delivered a resounding win in the Malava by-election, sending a clear and unmistakable message: Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is still the man to watch in Western.”
“The victory did more than just flip a parliamentary seat; it re-established Mudavadi’s firm grip on the region’s politics and reaffirmed his influence at a time when many had begun to whisper doubts.” “And in a double blow to his critics, Moses Wetang’ula’s FORD-Kenya candidate also stumbled in Kabuchai, further cementing Mudavadi’s position as the Western region’s most prominent and strategic political player,” the brief concluded.
The Wamalwa–Natembeya team was equally quick to rub salt into Wetang’ula’s wounds, with DAP-K writing on its Facebook page: “Pale Kabuchai, mamba amezama katika mazingira yake (Kabuchai, the crocodile has drowned in its own environment). Even a crocodile can die in water, so trust me, bad days happen to everyone. Mamba kesha zalama (crocodile, sleep well).”
However, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, allied to the Kenya Moja formation of youthful MPs mostly aligned to ODM but bitterly opposed to the broad-based government, quickly downplayed the by-election results that appeared to favour candidates aligned with the government. “Winning with a margin of 300 for MP is not something to celebrate. In 2027, there will be no government machinery and MPs deployed to help you, you will be on your own,” he warned, alluding to claims that MPs allied to the Kenya Kwanza government had been stationed in every ward to campaign for Ndakwa amid allegations of massive bribery and intimidation.
It was not all doom for the United Opposition, however, as candidates aligned to its various parties clinched civic seats in several parts of the country.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), associated with Jubilee deputy leader Dr Fred Matiang’i, swept all three civic seats in Nyamira County, asserting his position as the new political kingpin of the Gusii region.
Gachagua’s party, the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), also clinched seats in Narok Town, Kisa East in Kakamega County, and Kariobangi North in Nairobi County, emerging as a formidable political force heading into the 2027 general election. Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party clinched the Mumbuni civic seat in Machakos County, affirming his invincibility in the Ukambani region.
In what could give President Ruto a major headache as he crafts a political behemoth for the 2027 polls, ODM asserted its dominance in the Nyanza and Coast regions, clinching the Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini parliamentary seats through Boyd Were, Moses Omondi, and Harrison Kombe, respectively.
These victories position the Orange party as a major force deserving of key positions in the next government, complicating President Ruto’s calculus as he prepares his 2027 lineup.
UDA also emerged unscathed in its Rift Valley and North Eastern Kenya strongholds, after its candidates Chemitei and Ahmed Maalim Hassan clinched the Baringo senatorial seat and the Banisa parliamentary seat, respectively. As the dust settles on the by-elections, it is back to the drawing board for the two main political formations as the country prepares for the 2027 poll.
For the Kenya Kwanza government, much work remains in winning over several restive regions, especially Western, Mt Kenya, Eastern, and parts of Nyanza, before the elections.
For the United Opposition, the need to unite and field single candidates across the country has never been more urgent, as demonstrated by the results of the Thursday polls. IEBC too will have to up its game if it is to win the trust of Kenyans that it can deliver credible, free, and fair elections.
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