By The Weekly Vision Political Desk
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has scored emphatic victories in three high-stakes parliamentary by-elections, securing a morale-boosting win for President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration. Yet, the celebrations were tempered by a stunning opposition sweep in Nyamira County, where the results signalled a possible political reawakening in the Gusii region, one that could complicate UDA’s 2027 calculus.
The by-elections, held on Thursday, 27 November, saw 181 candidates compete for positions left vacant through resignations, deaths, and protracted legal disputes. Results streamed in late into the night, with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) managing sporadic disruptions, including scuffles in Embu and reports of mishandled ballots in parts of Western Kenya.
UDA’s Ahmed Maalim Hassan delivered a commanding win after securing 12,456 votes (68%), comfortably defeating the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) candidate, Nurdin Maalim Mohamed, who garnered 4,321 votes (24%). Turnout stood at 42%. The victory reinforces UDA’s rising influence in the North Eastern region, where clan dynamics and shifting alliances continue to shape electoral outcomes.
One of the night’s most nail-biting contests unfolded in Ruto’s backyard in Mount Kenya, where UDA’s Leonard Wamuthende, popularly known as Leo wa Muthende, edged out Democratic Party (DP) candidate Newton Kariuki Ndwiga.
Wamuthende clinched victory with 8,912 votes against Ndwiga’s 8,456, a slim margin of 456 ballots. The declaration was delayed until 3:00 a.m. following a tense recount. With a turnout of 38%, the race exposed simmering rivalries between loyalists of President Ruto and allies of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
The contest descended into chaos at one point, featuring stone-throwing around tallying centres and Gachagua’s supporters accusing the state of interference. Nonetheless, Wamuthende’s 51% share of the vote gives Ruto temporary relief in a region critical to his 2027 re-election bid.
In Western Kenya, UDA’s David Ndakwa survived a spirited challenge from DAP-K’s Seth Panyako. Ndakwa won with 15,234 votes (52%) against Panyako’s 13,789 (47%). Turnout, however, dipped to a worrying 32%, highlighting growing voter apathy across the country. The night’s most consequential developments came from Nyamira, where opposition candidates aligned with former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i swept all three ward by-elections, Borabu, West Mugirango, and North Mugirango, with margins exceeding 60%.
The victories rattled UDA strategists, who accused their rivals of ferrying in voters from neighbouring Kisii County but failed to present compelling evidence. For President Ruto, the Nyamira outcome is a stark warning. After heavily courting the Gusii vote since 2022, the backlash suggests growing discontent over unmet economic promises and a yearning for alternative leadership. Matiang’i, though publicly silent, appears to be re-emerging as a force capable of reshaping the region’s political loyalties.
UDA’s nationwide wins underscore its continued organisational strength, but the unexpected revolt in Nyamira reveals deeper vulnerabilities within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. As the country edges toward 2027, the by-elections serve as both a reminder of UDA’s dominance and a signal that the political ground beneath Ruto’s feet may be shifting.
