Although details of the London meeting remain scant, the little we have gathered is that a decision was made that Mr Musyoka will be the one to face off with President Ruto in 2027, what remains now is identifying a suitable running mate for him. The three also discussed in detail Mr Kalonzo Musyoka’s chances of defeating President Ruto in comparison to other possible candidates from Azimio considering that Azimio leader Raila Odinga is likely to retire from elective politics before the next elections
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta is said to have convened a secret meeting in London last week where Wiper party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka was endorsed as the Azimio presidential flag bearer in 2027. According to sources, the meeting in London has sparked mixed reactions as some of the top leaders in Azimio were kept in the dark about the meeting.
Sources told The Weekly Vision that Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua was kept in the dark about the London meeting with the assumption that she might not be in the Azimio political set-up for 2027 and that she is likely to sever ties with Azimio to chart out her political destiny. According to the same source, Martha Karua is most likely set to run for governor of Kirinyaga in 2027 given that Governor Ann Waiguru, her longtime political rival is serving her final term.
- Although details of the London meeting remain scant, the little we have gathered is that a decision was made that Mr Musyoka will be the one to face off with President Ruto in 2027, what remains now is getting a suitable running mate for him. The three also discussed in detail his chances of defeating President Ruto in comparison to other possible candidates from Azimio considering that Azimio leader Raila Odinga is likely to retire from elective politics before the next elections.
Sources say it was agreed that Mr Musyoka must get a running mate from Western Kenya, and if that doesn’t work out, then find one from Mount Kenya but not Martha Karua. Four names are said to have featured prominently as possible running mates, they are Former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa.
The equation can however, change should William Ruto drop DP Gachagua for Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate. This will force Azimio to go back to the drawing board and go for a running mate from the mountain in either Jeremiah Kioni or Mwangi Wa Iria.
However, another source also said that Kenyans should not rule out the possibility of Musalia Mudavadi coming back to Azimio as Kalonzo Musyoka’s running mate should his current position of Prime Cabinet Secretary be declared unconstitutional by the courts. Should that happen, the combination of Musalia Mudavadi as Kalonzo Musyoka’s deputy in 2027 will send William Ruto home and make him a one-term president.
Analysts say a combination of Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi will see the team lockout President Ruto in the Ukambani, Western, and Nyanza regions. Azimio is still open to receiving Mudavadi should he feel played in Kenya Kwanza. Azimio’s prayers are to see a serious power struggle between Mudavadi and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagwa, which will eventually lead to a fallout between Mudavadi and Ruto.
Azimio’s strategy and the rationale behind the early endorsement of Kalonzo Musyoka are to hit the campaign trail as soon as possible and promote Mr. Musyoka, just as President Ruto seems to be doing now. Mr Musyoka has been loyal to Raila Odinga having supported the ODM leader in the 2013, 2017 and 2022 general elections.
The main issue, though, is whether Kalonzo Musyoka can turn the tables on President Ruto in 2027 considering that he will the running as the incumbent able to use his deep state networks and financial clout. According to reports, the UK meeting reviewed a range of variables and options before deciding that he was the most qualified.
Sources say the London meeting emphasized the need for Kalonzo Musyoka to first consolidate the Ukambani vote. During the last general elections, Raila Odinga got 75% of the total votes cast in the 3 Ukambani counties of Kitui, Makueni, and Machakos, leaving Ruto with 25%. It is believed that with Kalonzo running for the presidency, he can get 90% of the Ukambani votes. Further, during the last general elections, Ukambani registered a low turnout, it is assumed that had Kalonzo Musyoka been Raila Odinga’s running mate in 2022, the turnout could have been higher. Analysts say President Ruto gained more in Ukambani because Kalonzo was not a running mate.
Another strategy to be developed by Azimio is to launch early campaigns. It has been discovered that Kalonzo can humiliate Ruto if he embarks on early campaigns. However, analysts ask if Kalonzo has the financial muscle to finance early campaigns. But sources in Azimio say that once he is named as the flag bearer, he will benefit from funding from Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta links. Uhuru will bring the Mount Kenya Foundation on board, and Raila will bring his international financiers on board too.
The choice of Kalonzo Musyoka as the Azimio Presidential candidate in 2027 has caused panic within Kenya Kwanza. During the last elections, Ruto rode on the dynasty theory, and now with Kalonzo, he will not have anything to say about Kalonzo since he is not a dynasty. The hustler narrative shall be overcome by events because Ruto is no longer a hustler.
Another big question being asked is how sure Azimio will be that Kalonzo will automatically inherit Raila’s political strongholds in Nyanza, the Western, and the Coast regions. According to Azimio strategists, with Raila on the campaign trail soliciting votes for Kalonzo, he will still have the power to convince his traditional strongholds to vote for Kalonzo.
Political commentators have opined that Kalonzo will not have a problem in the coastal region; they can easily tilt towards Kalonzo. Again, it is believed that Kalonzo, with the support of Uhuru, Wa Iria, and Kioni, can perform better in the Mountain than Raila did in 2022.
Ruto used the narrative of Raila being non-Christian and referred to him as Mganga. The narrative sank deep into the minds of Mount Kenya voters, but with Kalonzoa, a born-again Christian, the Mganga narrative will neither be here nor there. While it is true that due to the dynasty and Mganga narrative, the mountain has been against Raila, and with Kalonzo as the flag bearer, even Gachagua will not have anything to tell them against Kalonzo.
Selling Kalonzo in the mountain region will be very easy compared to Raila. By the end of his first term, Ruto will have lost serious ground since the mountain will feel they are out of government considering the skewed state appointments, which are not favouring them according to the votes delivered. It is therefore Azimio’s strategy to use Kalonzo to woo Mount Kenya.
