By The Weekly Vision Team
Soon after Azimio Coalition leader Raila Odinga declared his partial support for the recently released report by the National Dialogue Committee, details have since emerged of great fear and panic by top politicians in the Mount Kenya region.
It was political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi of the famous tyranny of numbers who threw the first salvo at the Kikuyu nation through a well-crafted message posted on his X handle, warning them of a possible fallout with President Ruto. The X message reads, “”Dear Kikuyus, the Mulembe Nation is the second largest voting bloc in Kenya, and Ruto will mend fences with Raila. If they come together, you will be out of government for 100 years. Be nice to Ruto. He has been decent to you. Take it or leave it.
Many will remember that it was the tyranny of numbers narrative by Mr. Ngunyi that was used in 2013 to rig out ODM’s Raila Odinga. According to him, at that time, there was no way a combined force between the Kikuyus and Kalenjins could have been defeated. It should also be noted that it was Ngunyi who came up with the hustler narrative, which William Ruto used in his presidential campaign in 2022. Mr. Ngunyi is a former advisor to Uhuru Kenyatta and was based at the State House.
Sources say the tweet has sent shock waves down the spine of the top Kikuyu leadership, with claims that he is already crafting a narrative for the Kikuyus, which will be to the advantage of President Ruto in the 2027 elections.
In a nutshell, the warning by Mr. Ngunyi to political leaders from Mount Kenya is that if they dump President Ruto, as is the case now, then his only option is to bring on board the Mulembe nation and then do the unthinkable, bring Raila Odinga onboard.
There is also another narrative that President Ruto might not support another Kikuyu presidency after his term comes to an end. Keen political players must have noticed that Mr. Ngunyi is again predicting that Raila Odinga and William Ruto are most likely to work together for the rest of Ruto’s first term, just the same way Odinga did with President Uhuru Kenyatta. Should that happen, Mr. Ngunyi predicts that President Ruto might not need Kikuyu’s votes in 2027 to win the presidential contest. Ngunyi has, however, made it clear that the Mulembe Nation (Luihya) is ready and willing to play ball with William Ruto as they plan for 2032 secession.
Mr. Ngunyi says that it is not automatic that the current DP, Rigathi Gachagua, will be the automatic successor to Ruto in 2032. Succession politics for the presidency in Kenya have always been unpredictable, especially for the holders of the office of deputy president. In 2013, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka was Mwai Kibaki’s deputy, but when Kibaki’s term came to an end, Kibaki endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta. In 2022, when Uhuru Kenyatta’s term ended, he bypassed his deputy, William Ruto, and preferred Raila Odinga.
Vocal Kakamega senator Bonnie Khalwale has told Mr. Gachagua that President Ruto and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi have no MoU indicating that he will succeed William Ruto as president in 2032, a comment that has not gone down well with the Kikuyu nation.
Currently, Gachagua is the senior political leader from the Mt. Kenya region in government, while Mudavadi is from the Western Region. A few days ago, Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale lifted the lid on the silent political tensions and mistrust between Gachagua and Mudavadi. The senator, who serves as Kenya Kwanza’s Majority Whip in the Senate, threw a spanner in the works on the succession race and declared that President Ruto would be succeeded by a Luhya.
During a public rally in Western, Khalwale was quoted as saying, “Deputy President, listen to me. Whether you like it or not, in 2032, the way Uhuru left and Ruto entered, when Ruto leaves, it will be a Luhya who will enter.” Analysts now say that Raila Odinga, who has partially endorsed the NDC report save for the high cost of living, will take up the position of leader of the opposition and might decide to work with President Ruto. Should this happen, then Gachagua will be left in the political cold, as Mudavadi is also most likely to be elevated to the position of Prime Minister.