Will Raila Odinga’s ODM MPs help Kenya Kwanza floor Gachagua?
The political alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, which gave rise to the broad-based government, faces its toughest challenge this week as Kenya Kwanza is set to table a motion to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Raila has supported the arrangement that led to top ODM officials, including Deputy Party Leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, National Chairman John Mbadi, and National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, stepping down to join the Cabinet. All eyes are now on how ODM MPs will handle the motion expected to be tabled tomorrow, Tuesday, and whether they will support National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah in his effort to oust the DP, citing breaches of the Constitution.
ODM, part of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, currently has 83 MPs in the National Assembly following the resignations of Wandayi and Mbadi, along with the loss of Magarini MP Harrison Kombe in an election petition. Their support will be crucial for securing the two-thirds majority needed to pass the impeachment motion. Azimio as a whole has 176 MPs, but some coalition partners, such as Wiper with 26 MPs and Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-Kenya with five MPs, have stated they will not support the Gachagua ouster.
Kenya Kwanza, with 143 MPs, is expected to gain additional support from MPs who defected from Azimio, including some of the 28 Jubilee Party legislators. In the Senate, Kenya Kwanza holds the majority with 24 Senators, while Azimio has 22, and one Senator remains unaffiliated with either coalition. For the impeachment motion to succeed, it must first gain the backing of 233 MPs in the National Assembly before being taken to the Senate, where another two-thirds majority will be required. However, with some ODM MPs, like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, likely to oppose the broad-based government and side with other Azimio affiliates, the numbers may not align.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, who skipped a State House meeting and criticized President Ruto’s attempts to summon ODM legislators, may also withhold his support. As ODM’s National Secretary General, Sifuna holds significant influence within the party.
Meanwhile, Gachagua’s allies, such as Embakasi Central MP Major Donk, have already asserted that they have the numbers to defeat the motion. Gachagua has also claimed to have strong backing from Mt. Kenya voters, which may cause some MPs from the region to hesitate in fear of voter backlash.
“I have visited Mt. Kenya, and my people have told me not to worry. They assured me that if their MPs ask whether I should be impeached, they will tell them no,” Gachagua said during an interview with Meru-based radio stations on Sunday after a tour of the region. As impeachment efforts gained momentum, Gachagua retreated to Mt. Kenya for a series of rallies aimed at shoring up support.
Political analysts believe that the push to remove Gachagua intensified with Raila’s growing influence within the government, following his allies’ appointments to the Cabinet and the government’s support for his bid to become African Union Commission Chair. There has even been speculation, voiced by Raila’s allies and Ruto himself, of a possible alliance ahead of the 2027 elections to compensate for any loss of Mt. Kenya’s support, a region that heavily backed Ruto in 2022. Raila remains popular in Nyanza, Western, Nairobi, and Coast regions.
Whether ODM MPs will push Gachagua out could determine the strength of the new alliance between Ruto and Raila. Over the past two years, Gachagua has advocated for a “shareholding” government, suggesting that regions which supported Ruto should receive more resources and jobs. This stance has drawn criticism from President Ruto and Azimio leaders.
“I want to hear him talk about the problems of our fishermen in Lake Victoria, the challenges at the coast, and the struggles of sugarcane farmers in Western—not just focus on one region,” said ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga recently.
In recent weeks, President Ruto has toured ODM strongholds, promising equal treatment for all Kenyans under his administration. Meanwhile, Gachagua expressed hope that Raila will rise above local politics to focus on his African Union Commission campaign. “If they move forward with plans to impeach me, it won’t reflect well on Raila Odinga’s bid for the AUC chair. How can he fight domestic battles while seeking a continental position that’s meant to unite Africa?” Gachagua remarked on Sunday.
