A potential presidential run by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i in 2027 is stirring political speculation, presenting a significant challenge for ODM leader Raila Odinga and complicating dynamics for President William Ruto.
Reports indicate that Matiang’i is building a strategic campaign to challenge Ruto, including engaging Canadian lobbying firm Dickens & Madson. Documents filed with the U.S. Department of Justice show Matiang’i paid $65,000 (Ksh 8.4 million) as a down payment and agreed to a $250,000 (Ksh 32.3 million) annual retainer for the firm to mobilize support for his bid in key global capitals.
Matiang’i’s entry brings historical tensions with Raila into focus. While the two reconciled during the “Handshake” era under former President Uhuru Kenyatta, their relationship was strained after Raila’s 2002 pivot to back Mwai Kibaki instead of Matiang’i’s ally, Simeon Nyachae.
After working closely with Raila in the 2022 campaigns, Matiang’i played a critical role in advocating for Raila’s win, declaring confidence in the intelligence reports predicting his victory. However, Ruto emerged victorious, and Raila’s loss was upheld by the Supreme Court.
As whispers grow of a potential pre-election alliance between Raila’s ODM and Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition, Matiang’i’s ambitions could disrupt these plans. The Gusii voting bloc, traditionally loyal to the Odingas, may now rally behind Matiang’i, especially given perceptions that it is “owed” politically.
Simba Arati and ODM’s Succession Dilemma
Matiang’i’s candidacy could also unsettle Kisii Governor Simba Arati, who has been positioning himself as Raila’s successor should the ODM leader exit active politics. Raila’s rumoured bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship in February could further intensify the contest within ODM, with other potential heirs like Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Opiyo Wandayi also in contention.
While Matiang’i is hailed for transformative achievements in government, such as digitizing communication systems, eradicating exam malpractice in education, and upgrading police infrastructure, critics highlight his alleged excesses. The period under his watch saw accusations of extrajudicial killings, police brutality, and disregard for court orders, raising questions about his leadership style.
Public reaction has been equally polarized. Supporters point to his tangible accomplishments, with one X user noting: “Matiang’i is the only man to overhaul three ministries in 10 years… His flaw was that his orders were final.” Others, like journalist James Smart, cited his legacy of extrajudicial actions and criticized his track record in governance.
Observers argue that Matiang’i’s entry into the race could pose a formidable challenge to Ruto, especially if the Mt. Kenya voting bloc fractures post-Gachagua impeachment. Matiang’i’s proven administrative track record and international lobbying efforts could broaden his appeal across traditional political divides
The unfolding political realignments, particularly within ODM and Kenya Kwanza, will determine how key players like Raila and Ruto navigate this emerging threat. Will Raila support Matiang’i as a successor or align with Ruto for political expediency? The answers will shape Kenya’s 2027 political landscape, with Matiang’i’s candidacy potentially altering established alliances.
