In sum, Kalonzo’s political strategy revolves around one key question: Will Gachagua’s impeachment stand? The answer to this question could reshape the political landscape of Kenya in ways that go beyond just the 2027 election. Should Kalonzo succeed in positioning himself as the main beneficiary of Gachagua’s downfall, he could reconfigure the power dynamics in the country, creating an alliance capable of challenging the established order
In the volatile world of Kenyan politics, few moves are as strategically timed as Kalonzo Musyoka’s support for the ongoing political tribulations of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
While the Wiper Party leader has consistently thrown his weight behind Gachagua during his impeachment and current court proceedings, sources close to Kalonzo’s inner circle suggest that this public endorsement may not be as altruistic as it seems. Beneath the surface, Kalonzo is carefully positioning himself to capitalize on Gachagua’s political downfall, should the courts rule in favor of impeachment.
A Shifting Political Landscape: Kalonzo’s Calculated Risk
If Gachagua’s impeachment stands, it could be the opening Kalonzo has been waiting for. With Gachagua barred from holding public office, Kalonzo would gain a clear path to woo Mount Kenya’s influential voter base, a critical constituency in the 2027 presidential race. For years, the man from Tseikuru, Kitui County, has struggled to consolidate support in this region, long seen as the political stronghold and home to Kenya’s three former presidents. But a Gachagua exit could change the game. Kalonzo’s alliance-building efforts in Mount Kenya would be significantly boosted, positioning him as a serious contender for the presidency in 2027. This would represent a major shift in the political dynamics, as the region traditionally favours candidates with deep ties to their community.
The Impeachment’s Dark Shadow: A Looming Dilemma for Kalonzo
However, the stakes of this political drama are far from straightforward. If the courts decide to overturn Gachagua’s impeachment, the former deputy president would retain his eligibility to run for office in 2027. This would throw a wrench into Kalonzo’s presidential aspirations. While Kalonzo’s camp hopes to rise to the top, Gachagua’s survival in the race would complicate matters, particularly because Gachagua is unlikely to play second fiddle. If they were to run on the same ticket, Gachagua would demand the presidential position—an arrangement Kalonzo’s camp has made it clear they would not accept. For Kalonzo, a Gachagua recovery could mean a forced re-evaluation of his political ambitions and alliances.
A Battle for the Presidency: Kalonzo’s Time or Never?
As Kalonzo’s supporters continue to argue that he deserves his shot at the presidency after stepping aside in favour of Raila Odinga twice, the stakes are even higher now. Kalonzo has long positioned himself as the ‘next in line,’ but time is running out. At 70 years old, his window for running a meaningful presidential campaign is narrowing. Kalonzo is determined to break the mould in 2027 and claim the top seat. His allies are firm: it’s his time, and no more stepping aside. But this ambition is not without its challenges.
Behind the scenes, Kalonzo is grappling with significant financial obstacles that could undermine his bid. A campaign of the magnitude he envisions requires massive resources—resources that Kalonzo currently lacks. It is here where Gachagua’s impeachment could play a pivotal role. Should Gachagua’s removal from office stand, Kalonzo would likely gain crucial financial backing from Mount Kenya’s wealthy elite, who may see him as a favourable candidate to rally behind. This influx of resources could provide Kalonzo with the necessary tools to mount a serious challenge in 2027.
Building Alliances: The Mount Kenya Factor
As Kalonzo eyes the 2027 election, his camp is not just focused on the presidency but also on crafting a strategic alliance to solidify his appeal in key regions. Among those in the fold are heavyweights like Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi. But Kalonzo’s eyes are firmly fixed on the Mount Kenya region. Here, he is eyeing potential running mates like Ndindi Nyoro. Should Gachagua’s impeachment go through, Nyoro could help cement Kalonzo’s standing as a formidable candidate in the region.
The shadow of former President Uhuru Kenyatta also looms large. If Uhuru, still a powerful force in Mount Kenya, were to endorse Kalonzo’s bid, it could significantly boost his chances. Dr Fred Matiang’i, former Interior Cabinet Secretary and a key ally of Uhuru, is also rumoured to be part of the plan. Should Uhuru back Kalonzo, Matiang’i could play a prominent role in the new administration, potentially as Prime Cabinet Secretary—a position that would ensure the Mount Kenya region retains influence in a Kalonzo-led government.
The Road Ahead: Kalonzo’s Gambit to Reshape Kenyan Politics
In sum, Kalonzo’s political strategy revolves around one key question: Will Gachagua’s impeachment stand? The answer to this question could reshape the political landscape of Kenya in ways that go beyond just the 2027 election. Should Kalonzo succeed in positioning himself as the main beneficiary of Gachagua’s downfall, he could reconfigure the power dynamics in the country, creating an alliance capable of challenging the established order. However, the possibility of Gachagua’s return to the political fold complicates this vision, leaving Kalonzo with few options but to push for Gachagua’s removal at all costs.
For Kalonzo Musyoka, the battle over Gachagua’s impeachment is more than just a legal matter, it’s a high-stakes gamble for his political future.
