A political divide is beginning to surface within the broader Jaramogi Oginga Odinga family regarding the choice of a candidate for the Bondo parliamentary seat in the 2027 elections. Incumbent Dr Gideon Ochanda has distanced himself from the ODM party, opting to align with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition in the upcoming election. In response, ODM leader Raila Odinga has publicly endorsed businessman John Andiwo Mwai for the parliamentary seat.
This endorsement took place at Mwai’s residence, where Raila was joined by several other political figures. During the event, Raila addressed the crowd, affirming that, following Ochanda’s departure, Mwai had effectively assumed the role of acting MP in the community.
However, Dr. Oburu Odinga, the Siaya senator, has not warmly received the endorsement. While he acknowledged Raila’s endorsement of Mwai, Oburu clarified that supporting Mwai does not mean other potential candidates are barred from seeking the ODM ticket.
Politically, Oburu has openly contested Raila’s decision to back Mwai, with reports suggesting that Oburu had privately informed his close allies that he would only retire from active politics if his son, Jaoko Oburu, were cleared to contest for the Bondo parliamentary seat.
Political analysts now speculate that Raila’s support for Mwai may reduce the likelihood of Oburu stepping down in 2027, contrary to earlier expectations. As a result, those hoping to succeed Oburu as Siaya senator will need to prepare to contest against him in ODM primaries.
Rarieda MP Otiende Amolo is widely regarded as a potential successor to Oburu in the Senate. Some also see Amolo as a possible running mate to Siaya Governor James Orengo, who is currently experiencing tensions with his deputy, William Oduol, and is seeking a suitable replacement.
Raila’s decision to be hosted by Mwai carries significant weight, particularly for those closely following Bondo’s political landscape. Many observers believe that Mwai was Raila’s preferred candidate in the previous election cycle. Despite this, numerous opinion polls had indicated that Ochanda was the more popular choice. Moreover, reports have suggested that Ochanda will likely succeed, regardless of whether he runs under ODM, another party, or as an independent candidate.
These developments led Raila to reconsider his support for Mwai, especially after reports highlighted that Ochanda had decisively defeated Mwai in the ODM nominations, securing over 80% of the vote compared to the remaining 20% split among other candidates.
Despite Raila’s endorsement of Mwai, analysts argue that the political reality on the ground remains unchanged, with Ochanda retaining a significant voter base that could lead to surprising results in the 2027 race.
