By TWV Political Desk
Amid the ongoing political realignments and quiet manoeuvres within Kenya’s opposition landscape, questions are mounting over whether Kisii Governor and ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati is plotting an exit strategy from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
The speculation gained traction recently following Dr Fred Matiang’i’s official announcement of his 2027 presidential bid. Initially, Arati appeared to dismiss Matiang’i’s intentions with ridicule. However, as the former Interior Cabinet Secretary’s campaign began to gather momentum, Arati’s tone shifted markedly. Over time, he softened his stance and eventually aligned himself with what is now widely referred to as the “Matiang’i wave” sweeping through Kisii and Nyamira counties.
When Matiang’i made a high-profile return to Kisii, it was Arati who publicly welcomed him, an act that triggered speculation about a possible political shift. Observers interpreted his warm reception of Matiang’i as a subtle but symbolic departure from ODM’s ideological line.
Adding fuel to the fire is Arati’s repeated absence from key ODM events. Most notably, he was missing from the party’s widely publicised meeting in Kakamega. Party loyalists had expected an official explanation or at least an apology on his behalf. Neither came. Even Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna refrained from mentioning Arati, further deepening doubts about his commitment to the party and its leader, Raila Odinga.
Sources close to the party indicate that Arati’s perceived endorsement of Matiang’i was not well received by senior ODM officials, many of whom reportedly viewed the move as a betrayal. His association with Matiang’i has been interpreted by some as a strategic alignment, anticipating that the so-called Matiang’i wave could unseat rival politicians across the Gusii region.
Further suspicions were aroused when Arati failed to attend the ODM Central Management Committee (CMC) meeting held in Nairobi, an event chaired by Raila himself. The CMC is ODM’s top decision-making organ, and participation in its sessions is often seen as a litmus test of loyalty and commitment to the party’s vision. His unexplained absence raised additional concerns about his political intentions.
Arati was also notably absent from another crucial meeting in Nairobi, where Raila met Kisii delegates to chart a roadmap aimed at countering Matiang’i’s rising influence. Once again, no explanation was offered for Arati’s absence, prompting speculation that he may be distancing himself deliberately from ODM’s inner circle.
Political analysts now suggest that Arati may be preparing to defend his gubernatorial seat on the ticket of a political outfit aligned with Matiang’i, should the former Cabinet Secretary launch a full-scale campaign vehicle ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Whether these signs point to a calculated realignment or mere coincidence remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: Simba Arati’s recent moves have introduced fresh uncertainty into ODM’s internal dynamics, at a time when party unity is more crucial than ever.
