The anticipated impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is poised to significantly affect Nairobi County’s political landscape as the 2027 elections draw near. As the competition for the coveted gubernatorial seat intensifies, two key factors are beginning to take shape that could determine the election’s outcome.
Analysts suggest that the impeachment process in Parliament will be pivotal for Gachagua’s efforts to support a candidate from the Mount Kenya region to succeed current Governor Johnson Sakaja, regardless of the process’s outcome. Additionally, Raila Odinga’s potential success in securing the African Union Commission chairmanship will also heavily influence the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Tensions between Mr Gachagua and Governor Sakaja have been escalating, particularly affecting Deputy Governor Njoroge Muchiri. Gachagua has committed to employing every possible strategy to prevent Sakaja from winning a second term.
A crucial question looms: If Gachagua faces impeachment; will he be able to effectively back Muchiri’s campaign against Sakaja in 2027? This plan could be at risk due to the impeachment proceedings. Ferdinand Waititu, the former Governor of Kiambu and a close ally of Gachagua has been vocal about the necessity for the next governor to hail from the Mount Kenya region. Although he cannot run for governor himself due to his impeachment, Waititu continues to push for a Kikuyu candidate to lead the city.
The Mountain Kenya bloc holds significant political clout to elevate one of its own to the governorship, yet various challenges could impede this outcome. Reports indicate that former President Uhuru Kenyatta, now at the helm of the Jubilee Party, has solidified David Murathe and Jeremiah Kioni as the party leaders. Uhuru and his associates are actively considering potential candidates for the Nairobi governorship, with former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth emerging as a strong contender, particularly after the electorate rejected Mr Polycap Igathe in the last elections.
Moreover, Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the AUC chairmanship could further complicate the gubernatorial race. If he succeeds, it is believed that ODM may align with Ruto in the 2027 elections, possibly endorsing Sakaja. While Odinga had previously assured support to Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi for the ODM nomination, a potential alliance with Ruto could lead ODM to back Sakaja, possibly picking a running mate from either the mountain region or Ukambani.
