The battle to succeed the late Malava MP, Moses Malulu Injendi, has erupted into a heated political contest, with multiple candidates jostling for the seat even before the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) officially declares the by-election date. However, beyond the sheer number of aspirants, the looming contest is shaping up as a test of political allegiances, generational shifts, and clan dynamics that could redefine the constituency’s political future.
The controversy surrounding Malulu’s succession was ignited by Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo during the late MP’s requiem mass in Nairobi. Odhiambo suggested that in the interest of stability and avoiding costly campaigns, the people of Malava should allow the deceased’s family to nominate a successor. His remarks were later echoed by COTU Secretary-General Francis Atwoli during the burial, further fueling the debate.
At the heart of this conversation is Ryan Injendi, Malulu’s eldest son, who is believed to have the backing of President William Ruto and his close allies. His expected candidacy under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has drawn both support and criticism, with some questioning whether political seats should be passed down within families, while others argue that Ryan’s familiarity with parliamentary affairs makes him a viable candidate.
Malava’s by-election is proving to be more than just a race for an open parliamentary seat—it is a contest deeply rooted in generational and clan-based politics. The emergence of young contenders such as Ryan Injendi and lawyer Edgar Busiega, both from the populous Basonje clan, suggests a shift toward youthful leadership. However, aspirants from rival clans, including the Abashuu and Batali, have also thrown their hats into the ring, making the contest more complex.
Moreover, party dynamics are expected to play a crucial role in the by-election. While UDA is keen on fielding Malulu’s son, the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), led by former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa, has emerged as a formidable force in the constituency, attracting a majority of the aspirants. Lawyer Busiega, who was part of ANC’s legal team in 2022, is being courted by DAP-K, which is seen as a more palatable alternative to UDA in the region.
Historically, Malava has been an ANC stronghold, with the late Musalia Mudavadi enjoying significant support in the constituency. In the 2013 and 2022 elections, the area delivered the highest number of votes for Mudavadi’s political ambitions, solidifying ANC’s dominance. However, with ANC now absorbed into UDA, the latter faces an uphill task in convincing Malava’s electorate to rally behind its candidate.
Ruto’s UDA remains largely unpopular on the ground, making it an arduous task to market Ryan Injendi or any other UDA aspirant. The party’s past struggles in the region indicate that it will take a strong campaign strategy—and perhaps Mudavadi’s direct intervention—to shift public sentiment in UDA’s favor.
Additionally, Ford Kenya, another Kenya Kwanza affiliate, has historical traction in the constituency, having come close to unseating Malulu in both the 2017 and 2022 elections. If the party fields a strong candidate, it could further divide the Kenya Kwanza vote, complicating UDA’s efforts to consolidate its support base.
With the IEBC yet to finalize the by-election date, aspirants have begun laying the groundwork for what promises to be a fiercely contested race. The key battle lines will be drawn along party affiliations, clan loyalties, and generational leadership preferences.
For President Ruto and UDA, the challenge will be to overturn their unpopularity in Malava and rally the electorate behind their candidate, likely Ryan Injendi. For opposition-leaning parties like DAP-K, this by-election presents an opportunity to cement their growing influence in Western Kenya.
Ultimately, Malava’s by-election will serve as a litmus test for UDA’s ability to penetrate ANC’s traditional turf and gauge the shifting political tides in the region. Will Ruto’s party defy the odds, or will history repeat itself with Malava resisting his influence? The answer lies in the coming months as the battle for Malulu’s succession intensifies.
