By Mdadisi Mmoja
Campaigning for the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election officially ended on Monday, 13 July 2026, paving the way for polling tomorrow, Thursday, 16 July 2026, in a contest widely seen as a key test of political influence in the Mt Kenya region.
The by-election was triggered by the death of the area’s Member of Parliament, David Njuguna Kiaraho, on 29 March 2026. Voters will choose from several candidates, although the race is largely viewed as a two-way contest between Samuel Muchina Nyagah of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Sammy Kamau Ngotho of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).
Candidates from other parties, including Jubilee, are also on the ballot. However, political analysts say the outcome will be closely watched as an indicator of shifting political loyalties in Mt Kenya ahead of the 2027 General Election. The campaign has also exposed changing political alliances, with some Jubilee leaders openly backing the UDA candidate.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) says all preparations for the poll have been completed. All 144 polling stations across the constituency are expected to open at 6.00 a.m. and close at 5.00 p.m. on polling day. However, the campaign period has been overshadowed by allegations of voter bribery, intimidation and political violence.
Last week, the IEBC warned that it could postpone or even cancel the by-election if electoral offences and campaign-related disruptions continued. The warning followed reports of violence at political rallies and allegations of attempts to influence voters through cash handouts. The claims have been strongly contested by rival political camps.
The Law Society of Kenya (LSK) opposed calls to postpone the election, arguing that the vote should proceed as scheduled, provided the electoral laws are enforced. Meanwhile, Amnesty International and other election observers have urged the IEBC to ensure the poll is conducted in a free, fair and credible manner, while raising concerns over the reported incidents.
The by-election has also highlighted growing divisions within Mt Kenya politics, particularly between supporters of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose allies are aligned with the DCP, and supporters of President William Ruto within the UDA.
Both sides have traded accusations over alleged attempts to influence the outcome. Opposition leaders have accused the government of disrupting rival campaigns, while Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen has called on all political actors, including those linked to Mr Gachagua, to maintain peace and allow voters to exercise their democratic rights without intimidation.
Although the election will determine only one parliamentary seat, many political observers believe its significance extends well beyond Ol Kalou. The result is expected to offer an early indication of the balance of political power in the Mt Kenya region and could shape alliances as parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 General Election.
